000 AXNT20 KNHC 010001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 08N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N15W to 06N34W to 06N52W. Isolated showers are from 01N-07N between 13W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge covers the SE CONUS and extends into the Gulf where it continues to provide light to gentle NE to E flow E of 90W and moderate to fresh ESE flow W of 90W. Locally strong SE winds are over NE Mexico and S Texas adjacent waters ahead of a stationary front across SE Texas. Low-level moisture convergence across the NW Gulf waters continue to generate isolated showers and tstms N of 24N W of 94W. Fair weather prevails elsewhere being supported by subsidence of very dry air. The center of high pressure N of the area will shift ENE over NW Atlc waters by Wednesday morning, resulting in a decrease of the pressure gradient and the fresh to strong winds in the NW Gulf. The front will continue to stall through Wednesday and then lift northward and dissipate by Wednesday night as the next area of low pressure develops across the central Plains. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level anticyclone covers the Caribbean. In the middle levels, diffluent flow continue to support scattered showers and tstms in the vicinity of a surface trough that extends from 20N75W to Costa Rica near 09N82W. These showers affecting the W Caribbean W of 74W will continue to affect the W basin as the trough continues to move towards the Yucatan Peninsula the next two days. The tail of a stationary front reaches northern Hispaniola where it supports scattered showers and tstms across the Island and adjacent waters. A surface trough ahead of this front support isolated showers across the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh N flow is ahead of the trough while light to locally moderate trades are elsewhere. Otherwise, N winds will decrease to moderate in the NW Caribbean by Wednesday night. ...HISPANIOLA... The tail of a stationary front reaches northern Hispaniola supporting scattered showers and tstms across the Island and adjacent waters. A surface trough ahead of the front along 67W will continue to provide low-level moisture convergence across eastern portions of the island and Mona Passage region through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends into the discussion area near 30N65W extending S-SW to northern Hispaniola near 19N70W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 25N66W to the Mona Passage providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms within 135 nm either side of the front and surface trough. Farther east, a middle to upper level trough supports a 1011 mb low centered near 29N46W with the associated stationary front extending from the low NE beyond 31N44W. A surface trough also extends SW from the low to 24N52W to 20N57W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 06N-23N between 44W-53W being supported by diffluent flow aloft and a surface trough W of the ITCZ along 52W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos