000 AXNT20 KNHC 310002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 802 PM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 06N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N16W to 05N33W to 01S48W. Scattered to isolated showers are N of the ITCZ from 05N-15N between 30W-56W being supported by divergence aloft. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge covers the SE CONUS and extends into the Gulf where it is anchored by a 1018 mb high over Alabama adjacent waters near 28N87W. This ridge is providing variable gentle to light winds basin-wide except for the far W Gulf W of 94W where SSE winds increase to moderate ahead of a cold front moving across the state of Texas. Fair weather prevails being supported by strong dry air subsidence from aloft. The center of high pressure in the NE Gulf is forecast to move inland over the SE CONUS Tuesday leaving moderate to locally fresh return flow across the basin through late Wednesday. The cold front will reach SE Texas tonight, however i will stall before lifting back early Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad middle level trough across the far NW Atlc waters extends SSW to a base over the Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean waters. The trough is supporting a weakening cold front in the SW N Atlc waters that transitions to a stationary front along the Windward Passage across Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. Ahead of the front, an upper level inverted trough supports a 1012 mb low off the coast of Nicaragua near 14N80W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are between these features from 10N-19N between 78W-84W. Abundant moisture ahead of this front along with middle level diffluent flow support scattered showers and tstms across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Otherwise, a surface trough moving across the Lesser Antilles supports isolated showers in that region. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will prevails W of the front today and will prevail the next two days as the front dissipates leaving a shear line in place. Moderate trades will dominate elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated tstms continue across the island supported by middle level diffluent flow ahead of a weakening frontal boundary across the Windward Passage. A surface trough N of the Island support this convection as well. Showers are expected to cease by Tuesday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level trough continue to support a weakening cold front from 30N66W extending S-SW to 23N70W where it transitions to a stationary front that continues across the Windward Passage into the NW Caribbean. No convection is associated with the front. However, ahead of the front, a surface trough from 27N65W to 19N67W support scattered to isolated showers within 60 nm either side of its axis. Farther east, between 40W-60W a middle to upper level trough supports a 1011 mb low near 29N46W with an associated weakening cold front extending from the low SW to 24N48W then stalling to 21N58W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring primarily E of the low and front from 15N-28N between 38W-54W. Otherwise, the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge with axis extending from the Azores SW to near 23N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos