000 AXNT20 KNHC 291754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 28.7N 75.4W at 29/1800 UTC or about 215 nm NE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island and about 275 nm ENE of Vero Beach Florida moving ENE at 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-33N between 73W-78W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 08N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N21W to 04N30W to 07N45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N- 07N between 02W-24W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N between 24W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous middle to upper level trough extends over the Great Lakes region south-southeastward to over northern Florida supporting a cold front extending across the Florida peninsula from Lake Okeechobee SW to the NW coast of Cuba near 23N84W and across the Yucatan Channel region. A secondary wave of northern energy is analyzed N of the cold front as a surface trough extending from 26N84W to 22N91W. E of 90W...N-NW winds remain fresh to strong behind the front and are expected to gradually diminish through the evening and overnight hours as the front pushes farther east and high pressure builds in across the eastern Gulf. W of 90W...northerly winds range gentle to moderate this afternoon as a high center across portions of southern Texas moves eastward across the northern Gulf through Monday night. Winds are expected to remain light to gentle across the western Gulf as the high moves eastward. By Monday...southerly return flow will re-establish itself across the NW Gulf as the next frontal boundary is expected to reach the SE Texas coastal plain but stall and weaken on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery over the NW Caribbean occurring between an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the Windward Passage region and an upper level trough progressing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula this afternoon. The troughing supports a cold front extending across far western Cuba to the Yucatan peninsula ushering in moderate to fresh NW winds across portions of the western Caribbean and Central America. Farther east...a pre- frontal surface trough extends from Andros Island in the Bahamas across eastern Cuba to offshore of NE Nicaragua near 14N82W. Low- level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the surface trough along with middle to upper level divergence in association with the ridging aloft are generating scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 16N between 66W-79W...and from 14N-19N between 79W-86W. Finally...the Lesser Antilles remain fairly tranquil this afternoon and under mostly clear skies. A surface trough lies to the SE from 08N59W to 14N54W and will continue to generate isolated showers and tstms across Trinidad and Tobago and the waters S of 12N E of 64W. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the island this afternoon due to a surface trough approaching the area from the west and an existing surface trough analyzed across the eastern portion of the island along 70W. A favorable upper level divergent environment is helping to enhance the ongoing convection. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Philippe is becoming absorbed into a cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N80W extending S-SW across the Florida peninsula from Daytona Beach to near Naples. The cold front is supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough with axis extending over the eastern CONUS. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring in association with Philippe from 26N-33N between 73W-78W...with scattered showers and isolated tstms elsewhere S of 26N between 67W-78W. Farther east...another middle to upper level trough is along 51W and supports a partially occluded 1011 mb low centered near 29N50W. The associated cold front extends from the low SW to 25N52W to 23N60W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 23N-34N between 40W-50W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge with axis extending from the Azores near 36N24W SW to 20N44W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN