000 AXNT20 KNHC 291046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Tropical Storm Philippe... Tropical Storm Philippe was centered near 25.0N 81.0W at 0900 UTC, moving east-northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 1000 mb. The tropical storm will continue moving rapidly northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered moderate to strong convection is east of the center north of 18N between 70W-80W. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...Gale Warning over the SW Gulf of Mexico... The pressure gradient over the southwest Gulf continues to be strong enough to support gale-force winds behind the frontal boundary south of 21N and west of 95W. These conditions were noted in scatterometer data. These winds will diminish in the afternoon hours. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 13N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 13N21W to 07N38W to 08N54W. A surface trough extends from 13N53W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 18W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from northwest Florida to the Bay of Campeche with minimal shower activity associated with the front. A gale warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf behind the front. See the section above for details. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 8-14 ft seas are elsewhere. T.S. Philippe is located over the Straits of Florida, producing convection mainly east of of 83W. The cold front will continue moving southeast across the basin today kicking T.S. Philippe northeast into the Atlantic. High pressure building behind the front will prevail across the basin through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends south of T.S. Philippe from Havana Cuba to 16N81W. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 15N between 77W-85W. To the east, a surface trough extends from the Atlantic through eastern Hispaniola to near 14N70W with scattered showers mainly north of 16N. Scattered showers associated with the EPAC's monsoon trough prevails in the southwest Caribbean south of 11N between 76W-84W. Mostly cloudy skies and a few showers prevail across the remainder of the basin. Expect marine conditions to rapidly improve in the west Caribbean tonight and through Sunday as T.S. Philippe moves north away from the area. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are noted across the eastern portion of the island due to a surface trough approaching the area. This trough will move slowly westward increasing showers across the whole island through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection prevails across the west Atlantic mainly west of 70W related to T.S. Philippe. To the east, a cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N48W to 24N53W. Scattered showers are noted along and east of the front. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will cross the Florida peninsula today, and T.S. Philippe will move rapidly northward ahead of the front with widespread active convection and gusty winds near the center moving across the northwest Bahamas by the morning hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA