000 AXNT20 KNHC 290516 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 116 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Philippe was centered about 17 nm southwest of Havana Cuba near 24.8N 82.1W at 0300 UTC, moving north-northeast at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 1003 mb. The tropical storm will continue moving rapidly northward tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered moderate to strong convection is east of the center 19N-28N between 75W-83W. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N20W to 09N53W. A surface trough extends from 11N52W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 18W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche with minimal shower activity associated with the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 8-14 ft seas are west of the front. A complex trough/low pressure system centered in the southeast Gulf near 25N83W is interacting with T.S. Philippe located over the Straits of Florida, producing scattered moderate convection south of 28N E of 83W. The cold front will sweep across the eastern Gulf through Sunday morning and kick the low pressure system and T.S. Philippe northeast into the Atlantic. High pressure building behind the front will prevail across the basin through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends south of T.S. Philippe from Havana Cuba to the NE coast of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 18N between 76W-83W. This activity will move out of the region overnight. To the east, a surface trough extends from the Atlantic through the Mona Passage to near 13N71W with scattered showers mainly north of 17N. Scattered moderate convection associated with the EPAC monsoon trough prevails in the southwest Caribbean south of 11N between 73W-83W. Mostly cloudy skies and a few showers prevail across the remainder of the basin. Expect marine conditions to rapidly improve in the west Caribbean tonight and through Sunday as T.S. Philippe moves north. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across western Hispaniola. A surface trough with scattered showers is over the Mona Passage enhancing convection east of 70W. This trough will move slowly westward and reach eastern Hispaniola tonight, increasing showers across the whole island through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection prevails across the west Atlantic mainly west of 73W related to T.S. Philippe. To the east, a cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N49W to 25N56W. Scattered showers are noted along and east of the front. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will cross the Florida peninsula Sunday, and T.S. Philippe will move rapidly northward ahead of the front with widespread active convection and gusty winds near the center moving across the northwest Bahamas by the morning hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA