000 AXNT20 KNHC 281756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eighteen is centered near 21.8N 82.4W or about 69 nm south of Havana Cuba at 1800 UTC, moving north- northeast at 22 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 1005 mb. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on 29/0000 UTC while over the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 18N- 25N between 78W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 25N- 27N between 81W- 85W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. A Gulf of Mexico cold front is from 30.5N87W to 26N92W to 24N94W to 18.5N95W. A gale is S of 25N W of front with NW to N winds 25-35 kt. Seas are 8-10 ft. Winds are forecast to be below gale on 29/0600 UTC. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N20W to 05N30W to 05N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-10N between 15W-20W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 20W-27W. A surface trough extends from 13N50W to 07N53W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle at 30.5N87W to 26N92W to 24N94W to the Bay of Campeche at 18.5N95W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A gale is S of 25N W of front. See above. Further E, T.D. Eighteen is producing convection over the SE Gulf and S Florida. It is forecast to be over the N Bahamas in 24 hours. A tornado warning was just issued for S Florida. Also expect the cold front to extend from S Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula with 25 kt N winds over most of the E Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.D. Eighteen is over the NW Caribbean quickly approaching W Cuba with convection. A surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean from the Mona Passage to NW Venezuela at 11N70W with isolated showers mostly over the northern portion of the trough. The EPAC monsoon trough extends across Central America supporting scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 76W-84W. Mostly cloudy skies and a few showers prevail across the remainder of the basin. Expect marine conditions to improve in the west Caribbean by tonight and Sunday as T.D.Eighteen moves north. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across W Hispaniola at this time. A surface trough is with isolated showers is over the Mona Passage. This trough will move slowly westward and reach eastern Hispaniola today, increasing showers across the island through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to 26N62W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of the front. Surface ridging prevails across the E Atlantic. Expect T.D. Eighteen to bring strong winds and widespread inclement weather to the Bahamas this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa