000 AXNT20 KNHC 280538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was centered near 18.2N 84.4W or about 305 nm south-southwest of Havana Cuba at 0300 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 1005 mb. Numerous moderate convection is north of 16N and west of 76W, affecting Cuba and the Cayman Islands at this time. The system does not have a well-defined center, with multiple circulations embedded within a broad circulation, and is not classified as a tropical cyclone at this time. Heavy rain will spread northward across southern Florida through the next 24 hours. See the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. A cold front extends across the NW Gulf of Mexico from 29N92W to 25N97W. The front will continue pushing across the remainder of the Gulf through Sunday, with gale force winds expected to develop south of 26N west of the front later tonight, then continue through Saturday night. Strong northerly winds are expected elsewhere west of the front this weekend. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 10N16W to 08N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-10N between 20W-40W. A surface trough extends from 12N49W to 05N52W, with isolated showers within 90 nm of the trough axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving into the NW Gulf, with gale force winds expected to develop east of southern Mexico by early Saturday. Potential T.C. Eighteen is centered over the west Caribbean generating scattered moderate convection across the Yucatan Channel. See the section above for more details about these features. Isolated showers are noted along the cold front. Ahead of the front, a surface extends from northern Florida to near 26N90W supporting mostly fair weather over the remainder of the Gulf. The front will push across the entire basin this weekend, with fresh to strong northerly winds over most of the Gulf waters behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is producing widespread convective activity in the northwest Caribbean, and is expected to move northward overnight. Refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean from 18N67W to 11N69W with isolated showers. Mostly cloudy skies and a few showers prevail across the remainder of the basin. Expect marine conditions to improve in the west Caribbean Saturday night and Sunday as Potential TC Eighteen moves north. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. A surface trough is over Puerto Rico with isolated showers. This trough will move slowly westward and reach eastern Hispaniola by Saturday, increasing showers across the island this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system extends over the west Atlantic analyzed as a cold front from 31N61W to 25N66W then as a stationary front from that point to 23N77W. Isolated showers are noted along the cold front. Further east, a surface trough is from 26N30W to 20N44W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm south of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Expect for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen to bring strong winds and widespread inclement weather to the Bahamas this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA