000 AXNT20 KNHC 260925 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 525 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N21W to 08N40W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 04N-11N E of 20W. Similar convection is from 04N-17N between 31W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge influences the entire basin being anchored by a 1022 mb high centered in E Mexico near 22N99W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail E of 90W and in the SW basin. These winds will gradually reduce through this afternoon as a new center of high pressure forms in the NW Gulf, which will drift NNE thus providing return flow ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Friday afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front as it races SE exiting the basin Sunday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS extending into SW N Atlc waters with a base reaching western Cuba supports a cold front analyzed across central Cuba near 21N78W to Honduras near 15N84W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 19N79W SW into a 1008 mb low over Nicaragua adjacent waters near 14N81W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are occurring associated with the low from 09N-17N W of 78W. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the cold front. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front and in the NW quadrant of the low center. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. In the central and most of the E Caribbean, northerly flow aloft between ridging over the western basin and an upper level low over SE waters near 13N64W is providing overall fair conditions and mostly clear skies. Otherwise, a surface trough just to the E of the Lesser Antilles continues to provide focus for scattered to isolated showers E of 64W. The front will continue to race SE to E Cuba through tonight merging with the low center. The front will then stall before transitioning to a warm front Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry air aloft within northerly flow will support fair weather across the island through Friday. Moderate trades are expected to persist. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough extends over the eastern CONUS across the far SW N Atlc to a base over western Cuba. The trough supports a cold front extending from 31N72W to the central Bahamas to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W and into the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 210 nm east of the front N of 21N and within 90 nm W of the front S of 27N. Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring W of the front and within 135 nm ahead of it. The front is forecast to move east and gradually weaken across the central Atlc by Sunday. A broad middle to upper level low and associated trough over the eastern North Atlc supports a cold front extending from 30N26W to 24N34W to 22N47W. Isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either side of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos