000 AXNT20 KNHC 241008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 608 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is currently analyzed across the Gulf waters from 27N82W SW to 25N84W where it becomes stationary continuing SW to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Near gale NW to N winds are occurring S of 21N W of 95W. The wind field will increase into gale force this afternoon as the cold front pushes through the SW Gulf waters. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending from 17N58W to 07N59W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of strong vertical wind shear. However, shallow moisture and an upper trough in the W Atlc with base reaching Suriname support scattered showers and tstms from 06N-20N between 50W-61W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 10N20W to 06N35W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N- 12N between 20W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous broad middle to upper level trough progressing eastward over the E CONUS continue to support a cold front extending from 27N82W SW to 25N84W where it becomes stationary continuing SW to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Middle level diffluent flow across the southern half of the basin along with shallow moisture ahead of the front support scattered showers and tstms over the Bay of Campeche and between the stationary front and the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers and tstms are ahead of the cold front in the SE Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge is building in the wake of the front supporting near gale force winds in the SW Gulf and fresh to strong winds S of 21N W of 95W...however expected to increase to gale force this afternoon through tonight. Moderate NNE winds are elsewhere W of the front. A secondary reinforcing cold front, currently across northern Louisiana and portions of western Texas, is expected to enter the NW basin today increasing the northerly winds across much of the basin into Wednesday. Strong high pressure in wake of the front will build in across New Mexico and Texas...and into the western Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the NW Caribbean just N of eastern Honduras and continues to provide an overall divergent environment aloft that supports scattered showers and tstms in the vicinity of a 1008 mb low over NE Nicaragua adjacent waters and the W Caribbean S of 21N W of 75W. Strong high pressure N of the area supports fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin S of 15N between 69W-74W. Otherwise, a tropical wave E of the Lesser Antilles will cross the Islands later this morning with showers. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move across the Yucatan channel into the NW Caribbean Wed morning followed by northerly fresh to strong winds. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry air aloft within northerly flow will support fair weather across the island today continuing through Wednesday along with moderate to fresh trades. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and tstms are in the far NW forecast waters N of 27N W of 74W ahead of a cold front forecast to enter this region later this morning. The front will move SE across the Bahamas through Thu morning along with fresh to strong winds. The front then will stall before dissipating Friday. Farther east, an upper level low supports a surface trough extending from 26N57W to 20N59W with scattered heavy showers and tstms occurring from 20N- 29N between 50W-61W. This area lies SW of a cold front extending into the discussion area near 30N36W SW to 27N46W. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos