000 AXNT20 KNHC 231712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 112 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front across the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle to Vera Cruz Mexico will sweep across the remainder of the Gulf through early Tuesday with gale force northerly winds expected to develop S of 21N W of 95W early this afternoon as high pressure builds behind the front. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 18N55W to 05N56W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 47W and 62W, and is accompanied by an increase in low to mid level moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 17N between 51W and 62W. A tropical wave extends from the Bay of Campeche near 21N91W to SE mexico, to the E Pacific. This wave is associated with a sharp 700 mb trough. However, no significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough crosses the W Africa coast near 14N16W and extends to 09N20W, where the Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins and extends to 06N35W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 27W and 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 30N86W to 25N90W to 20N96W to 23N98W. A 1022 mb high centered over Texas is building southeast behind the front supporting fresh to strong northerly winds just west of the front. As the front passes south of Vera Cruz early this afternoon, the pressure gradient between the high and the lower pressure from the front will produce gale force winds offshore of Vera Cruz this afternoon through tonight. Please refer to the special features section for more details. A pre-frontal trough over the southeastern Gulf has dissipated. However, pre-frontal forcing east of the cold front is supporting scattered thunderstorms within 150 nm east of the cold front. Fresh to strong southerly flow is occurring to the east of the front as well. Over the next 24 hours the front will sweep across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico with strong northerly winds dominating much of the Gulf basin through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The combination of upper level diffluence and a developing trough just offshore Honduras is supporting numerous moderate and isolated strong convection within 150 nm of a line from 12N81W to 19N87W. Dry air and subsidence inhibits convection over the central and eastern Caribbean. High pressure north of the region supports fresh to strong trades across much of the central Caribbean, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere over the Caribbean basin. Over the next 24 hours convection will continue over the western Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms will increase over the eastern Caribbean through Wednesday as a tropical wave approaches the area. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry air and NW flow aloft will support fair weather across the island today. An upper low NE of the area may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the island on Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N42W and extends to 28N54W, where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front to 27N61W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of either side of the front. A surface trough extends from 31N66W to 25N66W. This trough is void of deep convection. Another surface trough extends from 26N57W to 20N59W and is a surface reflection of an upper low centered near 23N63W. This system is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 26N between 52W and 66W. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion area is dominated by high pressure centered north of the region. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto