000 AXNT20 KNHC 231030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front across the western Gulf extends from Mobile Alabama to Tampico Mexico. The front will sweep across the remainder of the Gulf through early Tuesday with gale force northerly winds expected to develop S of 21N W of 95W later this morning as the pressure gradient tightens. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 17N51W to 06N53W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity east of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-15N between 42W-52W, and enhanced by a mid-level trough along 60W. A tropical wave is moving across Central America along 90W south of 21N, and moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-19N between 80W-86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 11N17W to 07N24W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 15W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous middle to upper level trough moving into the SE U.S. supports the cold front mentioned above. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N88W to 21N90W. Low-level moisture convergence and mid-level divergence is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms across the eastern Gulf N of 25N E of the front. The cold front is expected to sweep across the remainder of the basin through Tuesday with fresh to strong northerly winds spreading eastward in wake of the front. Strong high pressure will move into the western Gulf Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The combination of a tropical wave along 90W and favorable upper level winds over the W Caribbean supports scattered showers and isolated tstms W of a line from the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W to northern Colombia near 11N74W...including Central America. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over most of the W Caribbean, and fresh to strong trades prevail E of 75W from the pressure gradient associated with high pressure in the western N Atlc. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry air and NW flow aloft will support fair weather across the island today. Fresh to strong trades expected to become moderate to occasionally fresh on Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends into the discussion area from 32N42W to 27N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 nm of the frontal boundary. The front will dissipate later today south of 30N. An upper level low is centered near 25N64W. Random showers are from 22N-30N between 60W-66W in association with the upper level low. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere north of the convergence zone and east of the tropical wave mentioned above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell