000 AXNT20 KNHC 221041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... High pressure building behind a cold front moving off the Texas coast tonight will tighten the pressure gradient along the Veracruz coast of southern Mexico, and induce gale force winds south of 20N west of 95W Monday through Tuesday. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 47W from 10N-21N is moving west at 10 kt. It is embedded in an area of moderate moisture as seen on SSMI TPW imagery, and troughing at 700 mb. Scattered showers are from 09N-19N between 33W-49W. A tropical wave moving into Central America extends from 21N87W to 10N86W, and moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in deep moisture with a well defined surface trough, and broad troughing at 700 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 14N- 22N between 83W-88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough is near the African coast from 09N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 21W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge prevails across the NE Gulf. Widespread showers in the SE Gulf are being enhanced by divergent upper level winds between an upper level anticyclone in the NW Caribbean and a trough moving into the western Gulf. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, and a tropical wave will move across the Yucatan peninsula through Monday. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the cold front Monday and Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave over the Gulf of Honduras will move across Central America later today. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough over Costa Rica and Panama is producing scattered moderate convection S of 11N. A large upper level anticyclone is centered near 19N83W with extensive moisture. Strong subsidence is over the E Caribbean E of 75W. Saharan Airmass Layer Imagery also shows a plume of dry air and dust over the E Caribbean E of 67W. Expect continued fair weather over most of the basin during the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails over Hispaniola except for a few high level clouds. Expect little change during the next 24 hours as relatively dry subsident air remains in place over the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N48W to 27N62W. Diffluence east of an upper low centered near 27N65W is enhancing scattered showers associated with the front. High pressure is north of 30N on both sides of the front, in the eastern Atlantic and over the eastern U.S. An upper level low centered near 22N45W is producing scattered showers east of the low due to upper level diffluence. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell