000 AXNT20 KNHC 182345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 15N30W to 07N31W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave came off the coast of Africa a couple of days ago as a very weak one. Disorganized convection has augmented in the past few hours and latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds associated with it. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N- 15N between 26W-33W. A tropical wave is in the east Caribbean with axis extending from 17N63W to 07N63W, moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. Shallow moisture in the area along with upper-level diffluent flow support scattered showers and thunderstorms from 09N-16N between 59W-65W. A tropical wave is in the east Caribbean with axis extending from 18N67W to inland Venezuela near 08N68W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is underneath an upper-level low that supports scattered showers from 15N-18N between 66W-69W. A tropical wave is moving across Central America with axis extending from 15N83W to 05N83W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region of abundant moisture at the lower levels. This environment is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms from 04N-15N between 78W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 07N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N19W to 09N26W, then resumes near 09N33W to 07N58W. Aside convection associated with the tropical wave in the central Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 43W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the southern Florida near 25N81W westward to 26N90W then curves southwest while weakening to 18N94W. The front is supported aloft by a mid to upper-level trough progressing eastward over the eastern CONUS and west Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the boundary between 80W-94W. High pressure builds behind the front supporting northerly fresh to strong winds in the western half Bay of Campeche and in the northeast Gulf. The front is expected to continue weakening tonight and gradually become diffuse by early Thursday. Fresh to strong winds will prevail through tonight and then decrease into moderate to occasional fresh through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A mid to upper-level high covers the western half of the basin proving stability and fair weather across most of the basin except in the vicinity of the tropical waves. Convection associated with these waves is forecast to impact the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through early Thursday. Moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern basin are expected to gradually increase through the end of the week as high pressure north of the area strengthens. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed over the southern portion of the basin as a tropical wave approaches. This activity will continue as the waves moves through. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N71W to the southern Florida peninsula near 25N80W, which is expected to meander while gradually dissipating through early Thursday. The front is supported aloft by a mid to upper level trough. Scattered showers are occurring within 75 nm on either side of the front. Farther east, an upper level low support a surface trough from 30N48W to 26N48W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N35W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA