000 AXNT20 KNHC 160005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 44.6N 13.3W at 15/2100 UTC or about 730 nm NE of the Azores, moving NNE at 33 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 45N between 15W and 18W. The center of Ophelia will cross over Ireland on Monday, however strong winds and rain will extend far from the center. Ophelia is expected to be a hurricane- force post-tropical cyclone when it nears the coast of Ireland on Monday. See the latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. A cold front along the Texas coast is moving into the Gulf of Mexico tonight, will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Mon morning, and then stall from Tampa Bay to the western half of the Bay of Campeche early Tue. A tight pressure gradient and cool dry air associated with the front will allow N winds funneling along the coast of Mexico to reach minimal gale force from Tampico to Veracruz Monday into late Tuesday, with seas reaching 8 to 14 ft. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 14N43W to 03N44W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of strong vertical shear. The wave lies underneath upper level divergent flow that along with abundant low level moisture support scattered showers and tstms from 09N-13N between 39W- 48W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 15N51W to 05N51W, moving at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of strong vertical shear. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show very high concentration of moisture in the wave environment, which is supporting isolated showers 09N-14N between 50W-56W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 19N69W to 11N69W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a strong vertical wind shear environment and in a region of dry air subsidence from aloft, which is hindering convection across the central basin. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa to 11N15W then to E Atlc waters near 10N18W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N18W to 07N30W to 08N43W. Aside the convection associated with the waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N E of 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A well defined surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico from 28N92W to 24N92W to 19N93W. A broad upper ridge centered over the NW Caribbean covers most of the basin. NW of the ridge, the base of an upper level trough that is supporting the next cold front to enter the basin tonight generates diffluent flow, which is supporting numerous heavy showers and tstms NW of the surface trough axis from 24N-29N between 91W-97W. Similar convection is over SE Louisiana, S Mississippi and S Alabama and coastal wasters. Isolated showers are elsewhere in the western half of the basin. Gale force winds will develop between the front and the E coast of Mexico Monday. See special features above. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant low level moisture and upper level diffluence aloft is supporting scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms along Central America. These showers extend within 120 nm E of the coast of Nicaragua. A tropical wave is moving over the central Caribbean waters, however there is no convection associated with it. See tropical wave section. Scattered showers and tstms are over central Hispaniola being supported by middle to upper level diffluent flow. Numerous heavy showers are across the eastern half of Puerto Rico associated with broad area of low pressure centered over Hispaniola NE adjacent waters. Showers will extend to western Puerto Rico tonight and then prevail over the Island through Monday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and tstms are over central Hispaniola being supported by middle to upper level diffluent flow. Showers will continue and increase in areal coverage as the broad area of low pressure centered NE of the Island continue a WNW track through Tuesday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Puerto Rico and Bermuda is associated with a broad area of low pressure centered near 21N68W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is mainly SE of the low affecting Puerto Rico and northern adjacent waters. A stationary front extends from 30N19W to 27N34W to 28N48W. Weak surface ridging is elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos