000 AXNT20 KNHC 151800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ophelia was centered near 41.6N 16.0W at 15/1500 UTC about 550 nm ENE of the Azores, racing NE at 33 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Ophelia will be a powerful post- tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday. See the latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. A cold front across Texas will move into the Gulf of Mexico tonight, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche late Mon, and then stall from Tampa Bay to 25N91W to 18N93W late Tue. A tight pressure gradient and cool dry air associated with the front will allow N winds funneling along the coast of Mexico to reach minimal gale force from Tampico to Veracruz Monday into late Tuesday, with seas reaching 8 to 13 ft. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 41.5W is moving W at 20 kt. The wave has a distinct surface trough, weak troughing at 700 mb, and moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N-11N between 40W-45W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 50W is moving W at 10 kt. The wave has a distinct surface trough, weak troughing at 700 mb, and moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-14N between 45W-51W. A tropical wave in the E Caribbean and SW N Atlc along 68W with a nearby 1012 mb low near 20N66.5W is moving W at 15 kt. The wave has a distinct surface and 700 mb trough, and abundant moisture noted on SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 17N-22N between 61W-66W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough near Africa is E of 20W. The ITCZ axis extends from 09N20W to 08N41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 13W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A well defined surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico along 93W. Scattered showers are along a line from 24N93W to 27N95W. Mostly fair weather and 10-15 kt winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Expect the surface trough to move W, and a strong cold front to move off the coast of Texas Monday morning with strong northerly winds behind it. Gale force winds will develop south of 24N west of the front. See special features above. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave axis extends S of the Mona Passage with minimal convection. A 1008 mb surface low is along the coast of Colombia near 10N76W with random showers. Scattered showers are near the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Expect the tropical wave to produce increased convection in the central Caribbean during the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers over the island are expected to increase today due to diurnal heating and a tropical wave along 68W as it moves west. Expect scattered showers to persist overnight, mostly due to the tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends NE from the tropical wave along 68W from 23N68W to 30N65W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is east of the trough axis to 64W from 23N-30N. An upper level low centered near 27N76W is enhancing scattered showers north of the Bahamas from 23N-27N between 71W-74W. A stationary front S and SW of Ophelia extends from 32N20W to 29N24W to 28N45W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front between 30W-40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell