000 AXNT20 KNHC 141730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 34.8N 26.6W at 14/1500 UTC or about 190 nm S of the Azores, moving NE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. The core of Ophelia will pass to the south and southeast of the Azores tonight. It is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds as it approaches Ireland. See the latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 30W from 04N-13N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a surface trough and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 44W from 04N- 14N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a surface trough and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N-14N between 39W-48W. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 22N60W to 10N63W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of abundant moisture noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a distinct surface and 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 12N-18N between 58W-61W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean and Central America along 84W from 05N-18N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded within an area of deep layer moisture as depicted in the SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over much of eastern Nicaragua, over portions of the W Caribbean Sea, and eastern Panama. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N12W to 08N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N21W to 06N30W to 08N44W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 32W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 28N85W to 20N88W with minimal convection. Mostly fair weather is over the N Gulf. 10-20 kt easterly surface winds are over the Gulf, with strongest winds over the central Gulf. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over S Louisiana near 30N92W, with strong subsidence. Expect the surface trough to move W over the next 24 hours with additional showers. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa Rica and Panama with convection. In upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over the Leeward Islands near 18N63W. Expect the tropical wave W of the Lesser Antilles to produce convection over the E Caribbean during the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Partly cloudy weather persists over Hispaniola. Expect scattered showers in afternoon and evening hours Today, increasing Sunday due to the tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is NE of the Bahamas from 31N72W to 26N75W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Further east, a surface trough extends from 30N58W to 24N62W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-29N between 53W-58W, and from 24N-27N between 63W-67W. A stationary front is draped along 31N from 37W to 64W with scattered showers along the front. A surface ridge is anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 27N49W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell