000 AXNT20 KNHC 141016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 615 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 33.9N 28.6W at 14/0900 UTC or about 256 nm SSW of the Azores, moving ENE at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 32N-36N between 26W-30W. The core of Ophelia will pass to the south and southeast of the southeastern Azores by tonight or early Sunday. See the latest Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis extending from 13N28W to 04N29W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 14N41W to 04N43W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is W of the wave axis from 08N-11N between 42W-48W. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 22N61W to 10N62W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of abundant moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a distinct surface trough, and a distinct 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 13N-17N between 53W-58W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean and Central America with axis extending from 19N85W to 04N84W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of abundant moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis from 10N-17N between 80W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N12W to 07N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N18W to 06N28W, then resumes from 07N31W to 08N42W. The ITCZ resumes again from 08N45W to 09N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N-12N between 32W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 28N84W to 20N88W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida between 80W-83W. Scattered showers are also over the Bay of Campeche. Mostly fair weather is over the N Gulf. 10-20 kt easterly surface winds are over the Gulf, with strongest winds over the central Gulf. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over S Louisiana near 30N92W, with strong subsidence. Expect the surface trough to move W over the next 24 hours with additional showers. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 06N-10N between 77W-81W. Scattered showers are over Central America from Guatemala to Nicaragua. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over the Leeward Islands near 18N63W, with subsidence. Expect the tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles to produce convection over the E Caribbean over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered moderate convection persists over SW Hispaniola. Expect scattered showers and isolated showers in the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. Expect additional convection Sunday due to the tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Ophelia is over the E Atlantic. See above. A surface trough is NE of the Bahamas from 31N72W to 26N75W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 24N-26N between 65W-67W. Further east, a surface trough is noted from 29N58W to 24N62W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic, outside of the influence of Hurricane Ophelia, is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 26N48W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa