000 AXNT20 KNHC 140541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 33.0N 30.6W at 14/0300 UTC or about 347 nm SSW of the Azores, moving E-NE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 31N-35N between 29W-32W. The center of Ophelia will pass south of the southeastern Azores by late Saturday or early Sunday. See the latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis extending from 13N27W to 04N27W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 14N40W to 04N41W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles with axis extending from 21N59W to 10N61W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area of abundant moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a distinct surface trough, and a distinct 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis from 12N-17N between 54W-58W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean and Central America with axis extending from 18N83W to 04N83W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of abundant moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in a surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N12W to 06N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N17W to 06N26W, then resumes from 06N29W to 08N36W to 08N40W. The ITCZ resumes again from 08N44W to 09N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-13N between 31W-36W, and from 07N-11N between 43W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 27N82W to 22N87W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida between 80W-83W. Isolated moderate convection is also over the Bay of Campeche. Mostly fair weather is over the N Gulf. 10-20 kt easterly surface winds are over the Gulf, with strongest winds over the central Gulf. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over S Louisiana near 30N92W, with strong subsidence. Expect the surface trough to move W over the next 24 hours with additional showers. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 10N-13N between 79W-82W. Widely scattered moderate convection is also over Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered showers are over Central America from Guatemala to Nicaragua. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered over the Leeward Islands near 18N63W, with subsidence. Expect the tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles to produce convection over the E Caribbean over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers and isolated moderate convection persists over Hispaniola. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. Expect additional convection in 48 hours due to the tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Ophelia is detailed above. A surface trough is NE of the Bahamas from 31N71W to 27N74W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-30N between 63W-66W. Farther east, a surface trough is noted from 29N56W to 24N61W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic, outside of the influence of Hurricane Ophelia, is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 27N48W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa