000 AXNT20 KNHC 121000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 30.3N 35.6W at 12/0900 UTC or 630 nm southwest of the Azores moving northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 28N-32N between 32W-38W. See the latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis that extends from 16N48W to 06N51W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing and 850 mb relative vorticity max along the wave axis near 10N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N-18N between 43W-51W. A tropical wave is over the southwest Caribbean with axis extending from 14N79W to 06N79W, moving west at 10-15 kt. A low amplitude 700 mb troughing is noted over Central America. Despite the fact that abundant moisture prevails in the area, no significant convection is observed with this wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07N25W to 07N47W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 50W, no significant convection is observed at this time with any of these boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from 30N87W across the northwest Gulf to 26N96W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N-24N and west of 95W. A thermal trough is noted to the east of the front extending from 22N91W to 19N93W with scattered showers. Another surface trough was analyzed over the northeast waters from 30N83W to 26N83W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail across most of the basin except to the west of the front from 19N-26W. In this area, moderate to fresh northwesterly winds are noted in scatterometer data. Expect for the front to weaken to a trough and become diffuse through Friday. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection associated with an upper-level low centered over northern Cuba near 22N78W has diminished. At this time, isolated moderate convection is from 16N-20N and west of 82W. A tropical wave is moving across the southwest Caribbean. See the section above for details. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the whole basin. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level low centered west of the island and is expected to continue drifting west during the next couple of days. Upper level divergent southwesterly flow is expected to develop over the area supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms through the next 24-48 hours mostly in the afternoon/evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Ophelia is over the central Atlantic, while a tropical wave is along 51W. See the sections above for details. An upper- level low centered over northern Cuba near 22N78W is supporting scattered showers affecting the waters west of 70W. A surface trough extends from 28N76W to 24N77W. To the east, another trough extends from 28N68W to 21N71W. Isolated showers are noted along these features. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanies a surface trough that extends from 24N53W to 21N58W. The convection is from 19N-24N between 51W-55W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA