000 AXNT20 KNHC 120530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 30.0N 35.7W at 12/0300 UTC or 647 nm southwest of the Azores moving northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 27N-32N between 32W-38W. See the latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis that extends from 16N46W to 07N50W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing and 850 mb relative vorticity max along the wave axis near 10N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N-14N between 44W-49W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis extending from 16N75W to 07N76W, moving west at 10-15 kt. A low amplitude 700 mb troughing is noted over the northern portion of South and Central America. Despite the fact that abundant moisture prevails in the area, no significant convection is observed with this wave at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 09N48W, then resumes from 10N50W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 48W, no significant convection is observed at this time with any of these boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 30N90W across the NW Gulf to 25N96W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-26N and west of 96W. Moderate to occasional fresh easterly winds prevail across the basin. Expect for the front to weaken to a trough and become diffuse through Friday. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection associated with an upper-level low centered over northern Cuba near 22N77W has diminished. At this time, isolated moderate convection is from 15N-20N and west of 78W. A tropical wave is moving across the south-central Caribbean and N Colombia. See the section above for details. Scattered showers are noted over the Mona Passage. This activity will dissipate overnight. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the whole basin. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level low centered west of the island and is expected to continue drifting west during the next couple of days. Upper level divergent southwesterly flow is expected to develop over the area supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms through the next 24-48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Ophelia is over the central Atlantic, while a tropical wave is along 48W. See the sections above for details. An upper- level low centered over northern Cuba near 22N77W is supporting scattered showers affecting the waters west of 70W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 27N73W to 21N75W. Another trough extends from 24N67W to 20N70W. Isolated showers are noted along these features. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is from 20N-24N between 50W-55W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA