000 AXNT20 KNHC 111021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 30.2N 37.0W at 11/0900 UTC about 682 nm southwest of the Azores, moving southeast at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-31N between 30W-40W. See the latest Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from 13N41W to 04N46W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a moist area, as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well defined in scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 42W-48W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 21N70W to 11N70W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is becoming diffuse as a mid-to-upper level low centered to the north of Hispaniola dominates the area. Isolated showers are noted over the southern portion of the wave south of 11N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 09N29W. The ITCZ continues from 09N29W to 08N43W, then resumes from 07N47W to 08N60W. Aside fro the convection related to the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 12W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front off the coast of Texas and Mexico extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 29N91W to 22N98W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near the front mainly south of 26N and west of 96W. To the east, a surface trough is over the far east Gulf waters from 30N83W to 26N82W. Another surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche enhancing scattered moderate convection south of 22N between 90W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterlies across the basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for the southern portion of the cold front to become stationary across the western Gulf with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving into the central Caribbean. See the section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers over the far west Caribbean west of 82W. An upper-level low centered N of Hispaniola near 24N72W is enhancing convection over the northeast Caribbean north of 16N and east of 66W. This activity is affecting the far east Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Expect the upper-level low to move west over the next 48 hours. With this, the convection will also move west. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are observed as a tropical wave extends along the eastern portion of the island. Expect for more convection to develop as an upper-level low north of the island drifts west. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the eastern Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. See the section above for more information. An upper-level low is located near 24N72W. This system is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends from 28N69W to 24N71W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-28N between 68W-76W. Another surface trough extends from 28N60W to 20N64W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within the trough from 24N-27N between 58W-66W. Another area of moderate convection extends from 20N-24N between 48W-56W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA