000 AXNT20 KNHC 110538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 30.7N 37.6W at 11/0300 UTC about 682 nm southwest of the Azores, moving southeast at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Bands of scattered moderate convection are within 180 nm of the center. See the latest Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from 14N40W to 03N43W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a moist area, as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well defined in scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is observed along 09N where the wave meets the ITCZ. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 21N69W to 11N70W, moving west at 15-20 kt. A surface and 700 mb trough are well defined with this wave. Isolated showers are noted over the southern portion of the wave south of 13N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to 09N41W, then resumes from 09N43W to 06N57W. Aside fro the convection related to the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 12W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front off the coast of Texas and Mexico extends across the northwest Gulf waters with isolated showers. To the east, a surface trough is over the far east Gulf waters from 29N83W to 26N82W. Scattered showers are noted along this trough. Scattered moderate convection prevails over the Bay of Campeche mainly south of 21N between 91W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterlies across the basin. Expect during the next 24-48 hours for the cold front to continue moving southeast across the western Gulf with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving into the central Caribbean. See the section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. An upper-level low centered N of Hispaniola near 23N69W is enhancing convection over the northeast Caribbean north of 16N and east of 68W. This activity is affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Expect the upper- level low to move west over the next 48 hours. With this, the convection will also move west. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are observed as a tropical wave extends along the eastern portion of the island. Expect this convection to spread across the whole island during the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the eastern Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. See the section above for more information. An upper-level low is located near 23N69W. This system is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends north of Puerto Rico from 26N63W to 11N70W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-28N between 57W-73W. Another surface trough extends from 24N54W to 18N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed to the east of the trough from 17N-27N between 45W-56W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA