000 AXNT20 KNHC 102351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 31.1N 38.0W at 10/2100 UTC about 680 nm southwest of the Azores, moving southeast at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Bands of scattered moderate convection are within 180 nm of the center. See the latest Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east Atlantic with axis extending from 14N38W to 03N40W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well defined in scatterometer data. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 37W-45W. A tropical wave is over the Caribbean with axis extending from 19N68W to 10N71W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is depicted as a moist area in SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb trough are well defined. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the NE Caribbean from 15N-20N between 61W-68W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 07N18W to 06N29W. The ITCZ continues from 06N29W to 08N38W then resumes from 07N41W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-08N between 11W-14W, and from 05N- 08N between 20W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front off the coast of Texas extends from SW Louisiana to S Texas. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N93W to 17N92W with minimal convection. A surface trough is over the southern Gulf of Mexico from 26N85W to 22N84W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. Expect the cold front to extend from SE Louisiana to Tampico Mexico in 24 hours with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving into the central Caribbean. See above. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is in northern Colombia. 10-15 kt trade winds prevail over the basin. An upper level low centered N of Hispaniola near 23N69W. Diffluence from this low is enhancing the convection over the Leeward Islands. Expect the upper level low to move west over the next 48 hours. Also expect convection over the SW Caribbean to increase. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated moderate convection is over the southern part of the island. Expect convection associated with a tropical wave SE of Hispaniola to spread across the island during the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the eastern Atlantic. A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. See above. A surface trough is N of Puerto Rico from 26N64W to 20N68W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 21N-26N between 58W- 70W. Diffluence associated with an upper level low centered near 23N69W is enhancing the convection between 50W-70W. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N54W. Surface ridging extends SW from this high to the E Gulf of Mexico. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell