000 AXNT20 KNHC 101742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 31.5N 38.3W at 10/1500 UTC about 677 nm west-southwest of the Azores, moving southeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the center. See the latest Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east Atlantic with axis extending from 14N36W to 02N37W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well defined in scatterometer data. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-14N between 33W-43W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 19N67W to 09N68W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb trough are both well defined. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the Leeward Islands from 15N-19N between 62W-65W. Wiedely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 15N-20N between 65W-69W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 06N25W to 09N34W to 07N41W. The ITCZ continues from 07N41W to 06N57W. Besides convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-06N between 10W-13W, and from 04N-08N between 15W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A prefrontal trough is along the coast of Texas from Houston to Corpus Christi to Brownsville. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm of the trough. Similar convection is along the coast of Mexico from Matamoros to Veracruz. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N93W to 17N92W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm W of the trough axis. A third surface trough is over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 26N85W to 22N84W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-25N between 86W-88W. Elsewhere, N Florida and the NE Gulf is experiencing surface ridging from a 1025 mb high centered over the W Atlantic near 36N56W. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over Georgia near 32N83W. Anticyclonic upper level flow is over the NE Gulf with strong subsidence. Expect a cold front to extend from S Louisiana to Tampico Mexico in 24 hours with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. Further W, scattered moderate convection is between E Cuba and Jamaica from 18N-20N between 74W-79W. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean from 10N-13N between 80W-84W. Presently, 10-15 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is over Belize near 18N88W. Another upper level low is centered N of Hispaniola near 23N69W. Upper level diffluence from this low is enhancing the convection over the Leeward Islands. Expect both upper level lows to move west over the next 48 hours. Also expect the convection over the SW Caribbean to persist. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently, isolated moderate convection is over the eastern Dominican Republic. Expect convection to advect over Hispaniola over the next 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the eastern Atlantic. A tropical wave is also moving across the central Atlantic. See above. A surface trough is N of the Leeward Islands from 24N64W to 20N67W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 20N-27N between 50W-66W. A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 36N56W. Surface ridging extends SW from this high to the E Gulf of Mexico. Of note in the upper levels, the upper level low centered N of Hispaniola near 23N69W has scattered showers within 120 nm of the center. More importantly, upper level diffluence E of this center is enhancing the convection between 50W-66W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa