000 AXNT20 KNHC 101048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 31.9N 38.8W at 10/0900 UTC about 686 nm west-southwest of the Azores, moving southeast at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-36N between 32W-41W. See the latest Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east Atlantic with axis extending from 14N34W to 02N34W, moving west at about 15 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well defined in scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 30W-35W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 21N64W to 10N65W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb trough are both well defined. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave mainly north of 17N and east of 74W enhanced also by the presence of an upper-level low centered near 24N66W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 07N39W. The ITCZ continues from 07N39W to 06N57W. Besides convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 36W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin from the central Atlantic. This pattern supports minimal convection over the area. A surface trough extends from 27N83W to 23N81W. A small area of scattered moderate convection is moving across the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche mainly south of 20N. This activity developed over the southern Yucatan Peninsula and is spreading offshore. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail to the east of the trough. This winds were noted in scatterometer data over the Florida Straits area. This conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. A cold front is expected to push off the Texas coast this evening with active convection expected across the northwest Gulf. This activity will follow the front as it moves across the northern portion of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean with scattered showers mainly north of 17N and east of 74W. See the section above for details. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers over Costa Rica, Panama, and the southwest Caribbean mainly south of 11N. Gentle trade winds prevail over most of the Caribbean. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are observed south of the island supported by the proximity of an upper-level low currently centered near 24N66W. This activity will diminish overnight. Scattered showers are expected to develop over land in the afternoon/evening hours as the upper-level low drifts west and a tropical wave approaches from the east. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the central Atlantic. See the section above for details. A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. For more details, see the section above. A surface ridge extends across the west Atlantic west of 70W with fair weather. To the east, an upper-level low is centered near 24N66W enhancing scattered moderate convection from 18N-27W between 55W-67W. A surface trough accompanies this activity extending from 28N60W to 25N64W. Another trough extends from 20N51W to 16N52W with isolated showers. A similar pattern is expected through the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA