000 AXNT20 KNHC 092350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 31.5N 39.6W at 09/2100 UTC about 735 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NE at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is NE of the center from 31N-34N between 36W-40W. See the latest Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the E Atlantic along 28W is moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface tough is well defined. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave along 61W/62W is moving W across the Lesser Antilles at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb tough are both well defined. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 19N-22N within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 10N24W to 07N38W. The ITCZ continues from 07N38W to 09N48W. Besides convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 30W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends SW across the basin from northern Florida to southern Mexico. A weak surface trough in the N Gulf extends from southern Mississippi to 29N92W, with minimal convection. Expect the surface trough to move inland tonight. A cold front associated with a low pressure system in N Oklahoma will push off the Texas coast Tue evening with active convection expected west of 95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving into the E Caribbean with isolated convection mainly N and E of the wave axis. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection over Costa Rica, Panama, and the SW Caribbean, S of 11N. 10-15 kt trade winds prevail over most of the Caribbean. Expect an increase of convection over the E Caribbean as the tropical wave moves west. Also expect convection over the SW Caribbean to persist. ...HISPANIOLA... Persistent moderate heavy showers showers are occurring over southern Haiti near 18N72W. Expect showers to diminish tonight, with fair skies in the morning becoming mostly cloudy, and scattered showers developing again in the southern part of the island Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the central Atlantic. See above. A tropical wave is near the Virgin Islands, and another wave is in the E Atlantic. See above. A surface trough over the central Bahamas from 26N77W to 21N77W is devoid of convection. Another surface trough is along 51W from 11N-18N. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-20N between 46W-51W. An upper level low centered near 25N65W is enhancing convective activity from 22N- 27N between 56W-63W. A ridge in the central Atlantic is N of the area between 43W-66W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell