000 AXNT20 KNHC 091742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 31.4N 39.9W at 09/1500 UTC or about 747 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NNE at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-34N between 32W-40W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical is over the E Atlantic with axis from 13N26W to 02N25W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface tough is well defined. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis from 20N59W to 10N60W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb tough are both well defined. Isolated moderate convection is from 18N-23N between 53W-60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N13W to 11N23W to 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 06N46W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 28W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from S Mississippi near 30N88W to 29N91W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 29N93W. Isolated moderate convection is within 45 nm of the trough. Surface ridging is over the E Gulf producing 10-15 kt SE winds. Expect the surface trough to move N over the next 24 hours. Also expect a cold front to come off the Texas coast Tuesday evening with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. Convection is mostly N and E of the wave axis. See above. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection over Costa Rica, Panama, and the SW Caribbean, S of 11N. Presently, 10-15 kt easterly tradewinds are over the Caribbean. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is over the coast of Nicaragua near 13N83W. Expect an increase of convection over the E Caribbean over the next 24 hours due to the tropical wave. Also expect the convection over the SW Caribbean to persist. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently, scattered showers are over the Dominican Republic, and NE of the island. In addition, scattered moderate convection is S of Hispaniola. Expect conditions to persist for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Ophelia is over the central Atlantic. See above. Two tropical waves are also moving across the basin. See above. A surface trough is over the central Bahamas from 26N77W to 21N77W, mostly void of convection. Another surface trough is over the tropics from 18N50W to 11N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 11N-19N between 46W-57W. A 1028 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 36N56W. Surface ridging extends SW from this high to the E Gulf of Mexico. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 25N64W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-28N between 57W-64W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa