000 AXNT20 KNHC 082344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 744 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A nearly stationary 1010 mb low pressure is located over the central Atlantic near 31N40W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are mainly across the eastern semicircle. Recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the low is producing a small area of gale-force winds near the center. An increase in the amount and organization of the shower activity would result in the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today before environmental conditions become less favorable for development on Monday. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical is over the eastern Atlantic with axis from 13N20W to 02N21W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well defined. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave's axis, mostly related to the interaction of the wave with the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 17N46W to an embedded 1009 mb low near 12N47W, to 06N48W. The wave is moving west at 5-10 kt. The wave is in a very moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A 700 mb trough is well defined. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N-18N between 39W-50W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 18N54W to 09N56W, moving west at 5-10 kt. The wave is embedded in a moist area, as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb trough are both well defined. Isolated moderate convection is from 12N-18N between 52W-56W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 16N17W to 05N26W to 05N35W. The ITCZ extends from 05N35W to 09N46W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 25W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Nate is inland over northern Alabama, however, a feeder band of scattered moderate convection is over the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula mainly east of 86W. To the west, a surface trough also extends from 30N89W to 26N95W with scattered showers. Return flow will dominate the Gulf waters in the wake of Nate through Monday ahead of a cold front to come off the coast of Texas by Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Rain bands persist over the far northwest Caribbean N of 20N and west of 83W. Further east, scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico supported by a diffluent flow aloft generated to the east of an upper-level low centered over the southern Bahamas. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers over Costa Rica and Panama, as well as the southwest Caribbean mainly south of 11N. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. A tropical wave is expected to approach the eastern Caribbean over the next 24-48 hours with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently, scattered moderate convection prevails over the island supported by a diffluent flow aloft generated to the east of an upper-level low centered over the southern Bahamas. Expect conditions to persist for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section above for details. A surface trough extends from 27N72W to 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southern portion of the wave affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A low pressure is developing over the central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA