000 AXNT20 KNHC 081044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nate is centered near 31.5N 88.4W at 08/0900 UTC or about 70 nm NNE of Biloxi, Mississippi. Nate is moving NNE at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 70 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 30N-32N between 85W-89W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-35N between 84W-90W. A feeder band of moderate to isolated strong convection is to the SE over the E Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. A nearly stationary 1009 mb low pressure is located over the central Atlantic near 31N39W. This system has lost some organization during the past few hours. However, this low still has the potential to become a subtropical cyclone today before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 13N19W to 03N19W, moving W at 5 kt. Satellite derived data indicate the northern half of the wave is in a strong vertical shear region while the southern half is in a low shear environment. Enhanced IR satellite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the northern wave envronment as well. This is limiting the convection to the vicinity of the monsoon trough where scattered moderate convection and tstms are underneath a region of upper level diffluence from 04N-14N between 14W-24W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1011 mb low located near 08N46W, which is expected to move WNW towards 12N49W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from 16N44W to the low center to 06N46W, and has been moving W at 5 kt. The wave is in a region of mainly strong vertical wind shear and is experiencing dry air intrusion to its environment as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels. This is limiting convection to scattered moderate from 10N-15N between 44W-48W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 18N52W to 09N53W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region of mainly strong vertical wind shear. Shallow moisture in the wave environment along with middle level diffluence support scattered moderate convection from 12N-16N between 50W-53W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to 06N23W to 04N33W. The ITCZ extends from 04N33W to 06N42W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 20W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Nate is inland southern Mississippi, however feeder rainbands of this system prevail over the E Gulf and portions of the NW basin. See the special features section for further details. Storm surge warnings have been issued for the eastern Gulf coastline. Please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Return flow will dominate the Gulf waters in the wake of Nate Monday ahead of a cold front to come off the coast of Texas Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Nate feeder rain bands continue to affect the NW Caribbean waters N of 13N W of 78W. To the east, isolated showers and tstms are over Hispaniola and adjacent waters being supported by a surface trough over the SW N Atlc that extends to inland W Dominican Republic. This activity is forecast to continue through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin E of 82W while SE moderate to fresh winds are over the western waters. Expect convection over the NW Caribbean persist through Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and tstms are over Hispaniola and adjacent waters being supported by a surface trough over the SW N Atlc extending S to western Dominican Republic. This activity is forecast to continue through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section above for details. In the west Atlantic waters, a surface trough extends from 26N69W to 18N71W. Scattered moderate convection is noted to the east of the boundary from 20N-24N between 62W-68W. A dissipating cold front extends from 30N30W to 23N39W with scattered showers and tstms within 30 nm E of the boundary. A surface ridge prevails elsewhere anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 36N52W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos