000 AXNT20 KNHC 072356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nate is centered near 28.4N 89.1W at 07/2100 UTC or about 44 nm south of the mouth of the Mississippi river. Nate is moving north-northwest at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous strong convection is north of 25N between 84W-91W. A feeder band is to the southeast of this activity affecting the eastern Gulf of Mexico and far west Caribbean, mainly over west Cuba and Cayman Islands. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. A stationary 1008 mb low pressure is located over the central Atlantic near 32N39W. This low is beginning to acquire subtropical characteristics, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low drifts toward the southwest. Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to become hostile for further development. There is a high probability for tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical is off the coast of Africa with axis from 16N17W to 04N18W, moving west at about 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area, as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb trough are both well defined in streamlines analyses. Scattered showers are observed south of 10N and east of 20W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 15N42W to an embedded 1010 mb low near 09N44W, to 05N44W. The wave is moving west at around 10 kt. The wave is in a very moist area, as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A 700 mb trough is well defined in streamline analysis. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm on either side of the wave's axis. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 19N51W to 08N55W, moving west at 10 kt. This wave is also in a moist environment, as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb trough are both well defined. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-18N between 49W-53W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 06N23W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 06N42W, then resumes near 08N46W to 10N54W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are noted within 50 nm south of the monsoon trough between 20W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Nate is moving quickly towards the Gulf Coast. Additional strengthening is expected before landfall. Refer to the section above for details. Storm surge warnings have been issued for the eastern Gulf coastline. Please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. At this time, Hurricane Nate is the sole source of weather across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Nate's feeder band extends over western Cuba and the far west Caribbean, and has been over the same area for a long period of time. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed west of 78W. To the east, scattered moderate convection prevails over west Hispaniola and Puerto Rico mainly due to the combination of an upper-level trough to the north of the islands and daytime heating/sea breeze interactions. This activity could move over the Windward and Mona Passages this evening, but it will weaken quickly overnight. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin. Expect convection over the west Caribbean to persist during the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over west Hispaniola due to the combination of an upper-level trough to the north of the islands and daytime heating/sea breeze interactions. Expect these activity to weaken overnight. A similar pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section above for details. In the west Atlantic waters, a surface trough extends from 26N69W to 21N69W. Scattered moderate convection is noted to the east of the boundary from 21N-27N between 60W-68W. A cold front extends from 31N31W to 20N46W with isolated showers. A small trough extends south of the front with isolated showers. The trough extends from 20N39W to 17N42W. A surface ridge prevails elsewhere anchored by a 1020 mb high centered over the east Atlantic near 28N28W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA