000 AXNT20 KNHC 071751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 151 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nate is centered near 27.6N 88.9W at 07/1800 UTC or about 91 nm south of the mouth of the Mississippi river. Nate is moving north-northwest at 23 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 95 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 25N-29N between 86W-90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 23N-29N between 85W-92W. A feeder band is SE of the center with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 18N-24N between 82W-85W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. A non-tropical 1009 mb low pressure is located over the central Atlantic near 33N39W. This low is beginning to acquire subtropical characteristics, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next day or so while the low drifts toward the southwest. Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to become hostile for further development. There is a high probability for tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical is off the coast of Africa with axis from 11N15W to 01N14W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb tough are both well defined. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-11N between 10W-22W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 15N41W to an embedded 1010 mb low near 09N43W, to 05N43W. The wave is moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a very moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A 700 mb tough is well defined. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 40W-45W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 19N50W to 14N53W to 08N54W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb tough are both well defined. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-16N between 50W-55W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 10N20W to 06N23W to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 08N41W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave at 08N45W to 08N49W to 10N53W. The ITCZ continues W of another tropical wave at 11N55W to 11N61W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is over the Windward Islands from 10N-14N between 59W-63W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Nate is moving quickly towards the Gulf Coast. See above. Additional strengthening is expected before landfall. Storm surge warnings have also been issued with life-threatening potential. Please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Hurricane Nate is the sole source of precipitation in the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Nate feeder band extends over W Cuba and the NW Caribbean, and has been over the same area for a long period of time. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 18N-24N between 82W-85W. The Atlantic ITCZ is producing scattered moderate convection into the Windward Islands from 10N-14N between 59W- 63W. Elsewhere, the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers over Costa Rica, and the SW Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Caribbean along 75W. Expect convection over the NW Caribbean to persist for the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola due to a surface trough NE of the island. Expect these showers to persist for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See above. In the SW N Atlc waters, a surface trough extends from 27N69W to 20N69W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 20N-29N between 61W-68W. Elsewhere, a cold front extends from 31N33W to 28N34W to 22N42W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of the front. A 1021 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 28N29W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered E of the Bahamas near 26N70W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is enhancing convection. Another upper level low is centered near 32N38W also enhancing convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa