000 AXNT20 KNHC 070605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Nate became a hurricane near 22.4N 86.3W at 07/0330 UTC or about 84 nm west-northwest of the western tip of Cuba. At 07/0600 UTC Nate is centered near 23.5N 86.5W or 365 nm south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi river. Nate is moving north-northwest at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 21N-24N between 84W-89W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 16N-28N between 82W-92W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 16N37W to 07N41W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of strong vertical wind shear and is experiencing dry air intrusion to its environment as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels. This is limiting convection to scattered moderate from 05N-14N between 38W-45W just underneath upper level diffluent flow. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 18N46W to 09N51W, moving west at 5 kt. The wave is in a region of strong vertical wind shear, however CIRA LPW imagery show abundant moisture in the wave environment at the lower levels. This is limiting convection to scattered moderate from 12N-15N between 47W-52W just underneath middle level diffluent flow. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 10N22W to 10N29W. The ITCZ extends from 10N30W to 09N37W to 07N52W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous strong convection and tstms are coming off the coast of Africa associated with the next tropical. The convection extends from 03N-10N between 11W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The main concern in the basin is hurricane Nate located several nm NE of the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba. Additional strengthening is expected through Saturday up until the time Nate makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast Saturday evening or Saturday night. In Mexico, a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Nate is expected to produce rain accumulations of 6 inches in the Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba through Monday. For further details, see special features. Scatterometer data show a surface trough NW of Nate over the W Gulf along 29N93W to 22N92W producing scattered showers and tstms within 30 nm either side of its axis. CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms remains across the NW Caribbean, the NE Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan channel associated with hurricane Nate centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the special features section above for details. Nate is a broad tropical cyclone, which outer rainbands continue to affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and, central and eastern Cuba. Isolated showers extends over Hispaniola and are also being enhanced by a surface trough over SW N Atlc waters. Water vapor imagery indicates relatively drier air in place over the eastern Caribbean with resulting clear skies and mainly fair conditions. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds are expected to prevail E of 80W through the weekend. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the western Caribbean as Nate tracks northward. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are over Hispaniola associated with the outer rain bands of Hurricane Nate centered in the SE Gulf of Mexico. These showers are also being enhanced by a surface trough over SW N Atlc waters. Similar conditions are expected through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends across the western Atlantic from 26N68W to central Hispaniola. A stationary front enters our area of discussion near 31N38W to 24N47W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 25N30W. This is providing mostly fair weather for the eastern Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos