000 AXNT20 KNHC 062332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 732 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nate is centered near 20.3N 85.3W at 06/2100 UTC or about 70 nm east of Cozumel Mexico, moving north-northwest at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 14N-25N between 82W-89W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 17N35W to 10N39W, moving west at 5-10 kt. The wave remains low-amplitude and embedded within the ITCZ axis with subtle 700 mb troughing noted on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Isolated showers are noted south of 12N between 37W-42W. A tropical wave extends from 19N43W to 10N50W moving, west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb between 45W-55W. Scattered showers are from 12N-18N between 46W-50W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 06N23W to 11N33W. The ITCZ extends from 11N33W to 08N55W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection prevails near the monsoon trough portion that extends inland over Africa. A few cells are moving offshore mainly east of 16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... T.S Nate is approaching the Yucatan Channel enhancing convection south of 25N between 83W-89W. To the west, a surface trough extends from 29N90W to 22N90W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 50 nm on either side of the trough. To the northeast of T.S Nate, a diffluent flow aloft combined with a surface trough extends over the Florida Peninsula supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east of 83W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterlies across the basin. Nate is expected to track northward through Saturday night making landfall along the north-central Gulf coast. Thereafter through Sunday, southerly winds on the eastern and southeastern periphery of Nate will remain fresh to strong as the cyclone gradually weakens inland. CARIBBEAN SEA... Primary focus remains across the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan peninsula as Tropical Storm Nate tracks north-northwest. Refer to the section above for details about Nate. While scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the NW Caribbean waters west of 83W, the outer bands of convection are impacting the western Caribbean waters, Cayman Islands, and portions of Cuba. This activity covers the area between 76W-81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over Hispaniola affecting mainly the western portion of the island. Farther east, water vapor imagery indicates relatively drier air in place over the eastern Caribbean with resulting clear skies and fair conditions. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds are expected to prevail E of 72W through Saturday. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the western Caribbean as Nate tracks northward. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered moderate convection has developed in the afternoon hours and prevails across the western portion of the island, mainly due to daytime heating/orographic lifting. This activity will dissipate overnight. Similar conditions are expected through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends across the western Atlantic from 29N81W to 31N79W. This feature combined with a diffluent flow aloft are supporting scattered moderate convection mainly west of 70W. Another surface trough extend from 23N70W to 30N66W with scattered showers. A stationary front enters our area of discussion near 31N38W to 24N47W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 25N30W. This is providing mostly fair weather for the eastern Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA