000 AXNT20 KNHC 061146 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nate is centered near 17.8N 84.8W at 06/1200 UTC, about 100 nm northeast of Isla Guanaja Honduras and about 200 nm south-southeast of Cozumel Mexico, moving north-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 14N-22N between 79W-86W. See the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends from 15N34W to 07N38W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is low-amplitude and located in an area of deep level moisture. An ASCAT pass Thu showed fresh to strong low-level cyclonic winds around the wave axis with strong to near gale force southerly winds south of the ITCZ. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm W of wave axis. A tropical wave axis extends from 19N43W to 08N49W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb between 40W-50W deep layer moisture. Isolated convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 10N35W to 12N47W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-14N between 24W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Northeasterly flow aloft persists over most of the basin between an upper-level anticyclone centered over western Mexico and an upper-level low centered near the Bay of Campeche, with a sharp trough axis extending to near the Florida panhandle. A 1008 mb low is near 27N87W with a surface trough southward across the Yucatan Channel. The low will move west and weaken to a trough later today. Widespread light-moderate convection is observed south of 27N and east of 87W. By early Saturday, Tropical Storm Nate will move northward into the south-central Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Primary focus remains the effects of Tropical Storm Nate across the western Caribbean and Central America. Please see above for details. In addition, a surface trough embedded within a low pressure centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico extends southward through the Yucatan Channel to north of Nate. This feature is enhancing convection across the area west of 80W. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Nate, moderate to occasionally fresh trades prevail east of 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... Partly cloudy skies continue across the island. A surface trough to the northeast extends into the Mona Passage, and an upper- level trough currently over Puerto Rico will introduce scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... South-southwesterly flow prevails over the western Atlantic with a favorable upper-level divergent environment W of 72W enhancing scattered showers north of 26N. A weak tropical wave is analyzed as a surface trough extending from 24N64W to the Mona Passage near 19N67W. A stationary front in the central Atlantic extends from 32N38W to 23N53W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring within 150 nm either side of the front. A surface ridge anchored by a weak 1019 mb high centered near 28N27W prevails across the eastern Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell