000 AXNT20 KNHC 051153 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...AMENDED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Amended Special Features section... Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nate is centered near 13.9N 83.4W at 05/1200 UTC or about 10 nm S of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm E of the center. Heavy rain and life-threatening flash floods or mudslides are possible during the next 24 hours as it moves across eastern Nicaragua and Honduras. See the latest NHC Public Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic N of 20N supports 20-30 kt easterly winds W of 70W. In addition, an area of low pressure is starting to develop near the Florida Keys. A gale warning is in effect for frequent gusts to gale force expected through mid-day today in the Straits of Florida. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 17N40W to 07N47W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery indicates this wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm W of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 24N65W in the Atlantic into the Caribbean near 11N69W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing and continues to interact with an upper- level low centered near 17N65W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the upper level low are supporting isolated to scattered moderate convection east of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough is near the African coast from 12N16W to 12N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 12N19W to 07N38W to 11N46W to the South American coast near 07N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N-11N between 26W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure over the southeast U.S. and low pressure associated with T.D. Sixteen near Nicaragua is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds across the basin. A surface low is in the Straits of Florida. An upper level high is centered over northern Mexico near 28N101W. The surface low will move W into the SE Gulf over the next 24 hours with widespread convection. Long term, T.D. Sixteen is expected to move into the southern Gulf on Sat and intensify, then reach the SE U.S. Gulf coast on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Depression Sixteen is expected to track NW across Nicaragua and Honduras today and reach the Yucatan peninsula late Fri. Its intensity in the W Caribbean will be largely determined by how much land interaction disrupts the cyclone center. An upper low centered over W Cuba near 22N84W is enhancing clouds and showers over a large area from 14N-22N between 77W-84W. Farther east, a tropical wave is along 65W-68W. The wave will move across the central Caribbean through tonight. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds persist elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave east of the island will reach the Dominican Republic today, then move W of Haiti by Fri evening. Expect slouds and showers to increase this afternon, then persist through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic N of 20N supports 20-30 kt easterly winds W of 72W. Widespread moderate convection is E of Florida from 20N-30N between 73W-81W. A stationary front reaches across the central Atlantic from 32N40W to 27N45W to 25N53W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. Broad surface ridging extends across the E Atlantic N of 20N and E of 40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell