000 AXNT20 KNHC 050535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Sixteen was centered near 12.6N 82.6W at 05/0300 UTC or about 85 nm SSE of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua, moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 10N-14N between 81W-84W. See the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 17N39W to 08N45W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery indicates this wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave along 67W extending from the Atlantic into the Caribbean is moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing and continues to interact with an upper-level low centered near 17N65W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the upper level low are supporting scattered moderate convection well east of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 12N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 12N20W to 08N30W to 11N43W to 09N53W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N-10N between 25W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure over the southeast U.S. and low pressure associated with T.D. Sixteen near Nicaragua is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds across the basin. A surface trough is in the Straits of Florida. An upper level high is centered over northern Mexico near 28N101W. Expect the surface trough to move W into the SE Gulf over the next 24 hours with convection. Long term, T.D. Sixteen is expected to move into the southern Gulf on Sat and intensify, then reach the SE U.S. Gulf coast on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Depression Sixteen is expected to track NW across Nicaragua and Honduras and reach the Yucatan peninsula late Fri. Its intensity in the W Caribbean will be largely determined by how much land interaction disrupts the cyclone center. An upper low centered over W Cuba near 22N84W is enhancing clouds and showers over a large area from 14N-22N between 77W-84W. Farther east, a tropical wave is along 67W. The wave will move across the central Caribbean through tonight. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds persist elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Showers have diminished over Hispaniola during the past 6 hours. A tropical wave E of the island will reach Dominican Republic in 12 hours, then move W of Haiti by Fri evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic N of 20N supports 20-30 kt easterly winds W of 70W. Widespread moderate convection is E of Florida from 20N-30N between 72W-81W. A stationary front reaches across the central Atlantic from 32N40W to 28N45W to 26N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. Broad surface ridging extends across the E Atlantic N of 20N and E of 40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell