000 AXNT20 KNHC 031741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave extends from 08N80W to 20N79W moving W at 10 kt. This wave is also interacting with an upper level low centered near 15N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N-14N between 76W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N-20N between 71W-82W. Recent scatterometer and surface data indicates an a 1009 mb low has developed this morning along the wave axis near 12N81W. Given the persistent strong convection...and gradual organization anticipated...the low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next couple of days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 09N35W to 15N33W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave remains low amplitude and coincides with subtle troughing at 700 mb between 31W-38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-14N between 29W-37W. A tropical wave extends from 08N54W to 23N57W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 52W- 62W and continues to interact with an upper-level low centered near 17N62W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the upper low are supporting widely scattered moderate convection from 10N-22N between 51W-61W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N14W to 08N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N18W to 09N30W to 07N41W to 07N49W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 15W-21W...and from 08N-17N between 38W- 51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Gulf waters near 25N95W with ridging extending E-SE to over western Cuba. The ridging aloft supports surface ridging across the basin anchored by a strong 1040 mb high centered over New England. In addition...a middle to upper level low is centered near 18N99W within the southern periphery of the upper level ridge supporting a surface trough extending from NE Mexico near 25N98W into a 1006 mb low centered near 19N94W. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring S of 25N W of 93W across the SW Gulf and portions of coastal Mexico. Otherwise...the surface ridging in place is generating fresh to strong easterly winds across the northern two- thirds of the basin that are forecast to persist through Wednesday night. By Wednesday night into Thursday...an area of low pressure is anticipated to develop across the Florida Straits and southern Florida peninsula. Regardless of possible tropical cyclone development...the area of low pressure is expected to bring increased cloudiness and convective precipitation to the Florida peninsula and SE Gulf late this week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Primary focus remains across the western Caribbean as a tropical wave analyzed along 80W continues to work in tandem with an upper level low centered near 15N80W generating scattered to numerous showers and scattered strong tstms across the SW Caribbean S of 14N between 76W-83W. Elsewhere...scattered showers and tstms are occurring mainly E of the wave axis from 12N-21N between 71W-81W. Convection occurring across the SW Caribbean also remains influenced by the monsoon trough axis extending from northern Colombia to central Nicaragua. Otherwise...farther east...another tropical wave is analyzed along 57W and continues to approach the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 10N-14N between 55W-61W. The wave will move across the eastern Caribbean through Wednesday. Finally...moderate to occasional fresh trades are expected to persist through Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently skies remain mostly fair across interior portions with cloudiness and scattered showers and tstms occurring across the southern and southwestern coastal waters as a tropical wave... currently along 80W...continues to move W and exit the region. Clear skies lie to the east as northerly flow aloft prevails. The next tropical wave is expected to approach the region by late Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A fast-moving surface trough is analyzed across the southern and central Florida peninsula along 81W and is producing widely scattered showers and isolated tstms within 120 nm either side of the boundary. This surface trough is a piece of energy fractured west from a frontal boundary impacting a large portion of the SW North Atlc. A cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N52W to 29N57W then becomes stationary to 27N64W to 26N74W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 22N-30N between 55W-75W...and within 120 nm either side of the cold front N of 30N. In addition...a fractured piece of tropical wave energy is analyzed as a surface trough from the tail end of the stationary front near 26N75W to central Cuba near 21N78W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 21N-28N between 75W-79W. This area focused around the surface trough continues to provide heavy rainfall and convective precipitation across the Bahamas which is forecast to move west and impact the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Elsewhere...a broad surface ridge axis extends SW from the Azores near 38N29W to 26N54W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN