000 AXNT20 KNHC 031041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic extends from 15N32W to 04N35W moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave remains low amplitude and coincides with modest troughing at 700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N-14N between 30W-36W. A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles extends from 22N55W to 09N57W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing at 700 mb. The wave continues to interact with an upper-level low that has been moving in tandem with the wave and is currently centered near 18N59W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the upper-level low are supporting a large area of widely scattered moderate to strong convection from 09N-22N between 44W-55W. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean along 76W/77W extends from 07N-18N moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb. This wave is also interacting with an upper- level low currently centered south of Jamaica near 16N78W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N-17N between 71W-77W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near 09N13W to 08N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 08N19W to 09N34W to 11N55W. Isolated convection is over W Africa from 05N-12N between 09W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 25N93W to 17N93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Satellite TPW imagery shows extensive moisture over the Gulf W of 89W. Expect over the next 24 hours a surface trough to persist over the Bay of Campeche with convection. In addition, expect surface ridging to build over the northern and central Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with a good amount of convection, see above. In addition, the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough extends from S Guatemala to Costa Rica to N Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over Central America S of 20N. Otherwise, 10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds in the NW Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... The island is SE of a tropical wave and upper low. Minimal convection remains over the island. Expect mostly fair weather and isolated showers today as the wave moves further W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A fast-moving surface trough is approaching S Florida along 79W from 24W-28W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A stationary front is over the west-central Atlantic from 31N55W to 26N70W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. Broad surface ridging extending SW from a 1027 mb high centered over the Azores dominates the Atlantic N of 22N and E of 53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell