000 AXNT20 KNHC 030540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic extends from 14N30W to 05N32W moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave remains low amplitude and coincides with modest troughing at 700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 29W- 35W. Isolated showers elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave over the Central Atlantic extends from 21N54W to 08N55W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing at 700 mb. The wave continues to interact with an upper-level low that has been moving in tandem with the wave and is currently centered near 21N53W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the upper-level low are supporting a large area of widely scattered moderate convection from 09N-22N between 42W-53W. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean extends from 18N78W to 07N80W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with pronounced troughing at 700 mb. This wave is also interacting with an upper-level low currently centered south of Jamaica near 16N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-16N between 72W-82W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 16N-22N between 75W-79W including Jamaica and W Cuba. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N14W to 09N31W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 09N33W to 10N55W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over W Africa from 07N-15N between 09W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is just off the coast of Texas from 30N94W to 27N95W moving W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. Further south, a surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 25N93W to 17N93W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the S Mexico near 18N95W. A good amount of upper level moisture is over the Gulf E of 96W. Expect over the next 24 hours for more showers to advect over S Florida. Also expect a surface trough to persist over the Bay of Campeche with convection. In addition, expect surface ridging to build over the northern and central Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with a good amount of convection, see above. In addition, the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough extends from S Guatemala to Costa Rica to N Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over Central America S of 20N. Otherwise, 10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds in the NW Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... The island is SE of a tropical wave and upper low. Scattered moderate convection remains over the island. Expect clearing over the Dominican Republic in 24 hours as the system moves W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the N Bahamas from 28N75W to 24N77W moving W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A stationary front is over the west-central Atlantic from 31N56W to 26N68W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. Broad surface ridging extending SW from a 1029 mb high centered over the Azores dominates the Atlantic N of 22N and E of 53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell