000 AXNT20 KNHC 022319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 719 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic extends from 14N28W to 05N28W moving W at 25 kt. The wave remains low amplitude and coincides with modest troughing at 700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery indicates this wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 27W-32W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave over the Central Atlantic extends from 21N53W to 08N52W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing at 700 mb. The wave continues to interact with an upper-level low that has been moving in tandem with the wave and is currently centered near 19N52W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the upper-level low are supporting a large area of widely scattered moderate convection from 10N-20N between 43W-53W. A tropical wave over the Central Caribbean extends from 17N76W to 07N78W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with pronounced troughing at 700 mb. This wave is also interacting with an upper- level low currently centered south of Jamaica near 17N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-16N between 75W-82W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 16N-22N between 75W-79W to include Jamaica and W Cuba. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 07N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 07N27W to 06N31W to 07N40W to 11N51W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 10N54W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over W Africa from 10N-15N between 10W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from S Florida near 25N80W to SE Louisiana near 30N90W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. Elsewhere, a surface trough is just off the coast of Texas from 30N94W to 27N95W moving W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. Further S, a surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 26N93W to 18N93W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of this trough. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the S Mexico near 19N94W. A good amount of upper level moisture is over the Gulf E of 96W. Expect over the next 24 hours for more showers to advect over S Florida. Also expect a surface trough to persist over the Bay of Campeche with convection. In addition, expect surface ridging to build over the northern and central Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave and an upper level low are over the central Caribbean with a good amount of convection. See above. In addition, the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough extends from S Guatemala to N Costa Rica to N Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over all of Central America S of 20N. Otherwise, 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds over the NW Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently the island is on the back side of a tropical wave and upper level low. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection remains over the island. Expect gradual clearing over the Dominican Republic in 24 hours as the system moves W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the N Bahamas from 28N74W to 24N76W moving W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. The tail end of a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N57W to 28N62W. A stationary front continues to 27N70W. widely scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the fronts. Broad surface ridging extends SW from a 1028 mb surface high centered over the Azores near 38N27W. The ridging dominates the Atlantic N of 22N and E of 53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa