000 AXNT20 KNHC 020003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A frontal boundary curves westward from 1012 mb low pres centered near 29N71W to 27N74W to the vicinity of Vero Beach Florida near 29N81W. A strong pressure gradient N of the boundary and to the NW of the low is generating near gale force winds with frequent gusts to gale force, basically N of 30N and W of 79W. The gradient is forecast to gradually relax in 18 hours as the boundary weakens and slowly moves eastward. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave off the African coast extends from 15N17W to 05N19W moving W around 20 kt. The wave is embedded in an area of deep- layer moisture and coincides with modest troughing at 700 mb. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave over the Central Atlantic extends from 21N49W to 07N44W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing and continues to interact with an upper-level low centered near 17N48W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the upper low, are supporting a large area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 05N-20N, E of the wave axis to 32W. A tropical wave over the Central Caribbean extends from 18N72W to 08N74W moving W at 10 kt. This wave is also interacting with an upper level low centered over the Windward Passage near 19N74W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 10N-19N, E of the wave axis to 68W. Puerto Rico is just within this area of convection. More convection is possible over Puerto Rico for the next 24 hours. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 07N20W to 07N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 07N26W to 08N42W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N46W and extends to the coast of South America near 06N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely scattered moderate convection is along the coast of South America from 06N-10N between 55W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Vero Beach Florida to N of Tampa Florida to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N86W to 27N90W to Lake Charles Louisiana. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. 30 kt NE surface winds are noted N of the front over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the SW Gulf from Tampico Mexico to Coatzacoalcos Mexico. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W. A good amount of upper level moisture is over the E Gulf E of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Active convection will continue in conjunction with the tropical wave crossing the central Caribbean as a weakening upper-level low noted on water vapor imagery over the Windward Passage moves SW generally in tandem with the wave during the next 24 hours. Elsewhere...an upper-level low centered over the N Yucatan is generating scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the NW Caribbean and Central America W of 80W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh E-SE trades will persist through Monday, except for light to moderate winds over the SW Caribbean south of 12N. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently the island remains under the influence of an upper level low centered over the Windward Passage and a tropical wave moving W in tandem with the upper level feature. The upper level low will move SW ahead of the tropical wave and continue generating convection for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Outside of the influence of the strengthened pressure gradient across the far NW portion of the SW North Atlc generating near gale to gale force winds, broad surface ridging extends SW from a 1025 mb surface high centered W of the Azores near 35N31W. The ridging dominates the Atlantic to the east of 60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa