000 AXNT20 KNHC 301746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 146 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Maria is centered near 40.7N 47.2W at 30/1500 UTC or about 440 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving east- northeast at 28 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is north of 36N between 41W-46W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave extends across the eastern Caribbean with its axis from 23N65W to 10N69W, moving west at about 10 kt. An upper- level low is centered to the west of the wave over Hispaniola interacting favorably with the wave producing scattered moderate convection from 13N-22N between 60W- 70W. This activity is affecting the Lesser Antilles, US/UK Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The upper- level low will retrograde westward through early Sunday and remain in a favorable position to continue producing active convection across the area through the weekend. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N43W to 08N38W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing 37W- 44W and continues moving beneath the influence of an upper level low centered near 20N43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-15N between 35W-43W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 16N17W to 08N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N26W to 07N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is north of these boundaries between 24W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An active surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche enhancing scattered to numerous moderate convection south of 25N and west of 94W. To the east, an upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a trough, that extends from 29N85W to 25N89W. Southeast of this trough, scattered showers are developing south of 27N and east of 86W. A broad area of lower surface pressure was analyzed across the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters of the west Atlantic. The low is centered just west of Cape Canaveral and extends a trough across the west Atlantic. These features will keep the far east Gulf of Mexico active weather-wise through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Active convection will continue with the tropical wave across the eastern Caribbean. Refer to the Special Features section above for more details about this feature. An elongated low pressure also extends across the Yucatan Channel region then southward across the Gulf of Honduras and portions of Central America. This feature was analyzed as a surface trough from 21N87W to 16N88W. Dynamic lift associated with an upper-level low centered near 16N85W combined with a divergent environment over Central America and the central portion of the Caribbean is forcing active convection across much of the western Caribbean west of 75W and portions of Central America from Honduras westward to Guatemala and southern Mexico. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will persist through the weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper-level low is centered near 19N70W. This feature will continue moving westward as a tropical wave approaches the island, increasing cloudiness and the probability of precipitation this afternoon and evening. Expect this scenario to continue through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. A broad plume of moisture is being pulled northward across the waters north of the Bahamas by a mid to upper-level low centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A surface low is centered over central Florida, extending a trough over the west Atlantic from 29N81W to 31N77W. These features are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 27N and west of 72W. The northern extension of a tropical wave is enhancing convection across the waters north of Puerto Rico south of 22N between 64W-67W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 34N31W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA