000 AXNT20 KNHC 300945 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 545 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Maria is centered near 39.6N 50.5W at 30/0900 UTC or about 440 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E-NE at 28 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 33N-41N between 47W-53W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee is centered near 46.7N 35.6W at 30/0900 UTC or about 645 nm NNW of the Azores moving NE at 44 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave extends from 09N68W to 22N64W moving W at 5-10 kt. An upper level low is centered to the W of the wave over eastern Hispaniola and continues interacting favorably with the wave producing scattered moderate convection from 13N-21N between 57W-68W...including the Lesser Antilles...the US/UK Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico. The upper level low will retrograde westward through early Sunday and remain in a favorable position to produce active convection across the Leeward Islands...Puerto Rico...and portions of Hispaniola on Saturday into early Sunday. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 08N35W to 19N39W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing 36W-43W and continues moving beneath the influence of an upper level low centered near 18N42W. Given these features at all levels...widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N-15N between 26W-37W. Isolated moderate convection is from 15N-18N between 36W-41W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 09N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N24W to 09N30W to 05N41W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 11W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad area of lower surface pressure is analyzed across the eastern Gulf of Mexico...Florida peninsula...and adjacent coastal waters of the SW North Atlc this morning. Much of this area of lower pressure is focused on a surface trough extending from N of the Bahamas near 30N76W into a weak 1011 mb low centered across the central Florida peninsula near 28N81W to 27N83W in the eastern Gulf and falls within influence of a middle to upper level low centered near 26N86W. The upper level low continues to advect moisture northward from the NW Caribbean Sea over Cuba...the Florida Straits...and Florida peninsula. Regardless of possible tropical cyclone development over this region...the upper level low and troughing will produce areas of heavy rainfall across the Florida peninsula and adjacent Gulf waters during the next few days. Elsewhere...across the SW Gulf waters...a surface trough is analyzed from 18N94W to 25N98W providing focus for scattered showers and strong tstms generally S of 24N W of 93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Active convection will continue with the tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean as an upper level low noted on water vapor imagery over eastern Hispaniola moves W and generally in tandem with the wave during the next 24-36 hours. Much of the wave related moisture is expected to shift NW across the NE Caribbean and into the SW North Atlc by late Saturday into early Sunday. Elongated low pressure also extends across the Yucatan Channel region then southward across the Gulf of Honduras and portions of Central America. Dynamic lift associated with an upper level low centered near 17N85W and a divergent environment over Central America is forcing active convection across much of the NW Caribbean S of 22N W of 81W...and portions of Central America from Honduras westward to Guatemala and southern Mexico. Otherwise...moderate to fresh E-SE trades will persist through Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently the island falls under the influence of an upper level low centered near 19N70W. The upper level low will continue moving westward as a tropical wave...across the eastern Caribbean Sea at this time...will begin to increase cloudiness and the probability of precipitation Saturday and Saturday night. While deeper convection remains generally south and east of Puerto Rico at this time...the leading edge of isolated shower and tstm activity remains S of the Mona Passage and adjacent southeastern coastal waters this morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad plume of moisture is being pulled northward across the waters N of the Bahamas by a middle to upper level low centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico. The upper level low and surface troughing extending from 30N76W to a 1012 mb low centered near 28N81W and supports scattered showers and isolated tstms generally N of 26N W of 74W. To the northeast...a cold front extends from 32N60W to 29N70W and becomes stationary into a 1014 mb low centered off the South Carolina coast near 33N78W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front W of 60W. Elsewhere...surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc anchored by 1026 mb high centered near 34N31W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN