000 AXNT20 KNHC 300543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 AM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Maria is centered near 38.6N 53.9W at 30/0300 UTC or about 490 nm S of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E-NE at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 32N-40N between 51W-57W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Lee is centered near 44.3N 42.8W at 30/0300 UTC or about 805 nm WNW of the Azores moving E-NE at 36 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 39N-43N between 41W-44W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave extends from 08N68W to 21N64W moving W at 10-15 kt. An upper level low is centered to the W of the wave over eastern Hispaniola and continues interacting favorably with the wave producing scattered moderate convection from 13N-24N between 58W-69W...including the Lesser Antilles...the US/UK Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico. The upper level low will retrograde westward through early Sunday and remain in a favorable position producing active convection across the Leeward Islands...Puerto Rico...and portions of Hispaniola. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 04N33W to 17N35W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing 34W-42W and continues moving beneath the influence of an upper level low centered near 18N41W. Given these features at all levels...widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N-17N between 27W-40W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 16N16W to 14N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N25W to 09N34W to 06N40W to 08N51W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between 09W-19W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N between 19W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad area of lower surface pressure is analyzed across the eastern Gulf of Mexico...Florida peninsula...and adjacent coastal waters of the SW North Atlc this evening. Much of this area of lower pressure is focused on a surface trough extending from N of the Bahamas near 29N77W into a weak 1013 mb low centered near Melbourne Florida to 25N84W in the eastern Gulf and falls within influence of a middle to upper level low centered near 26N87W. The upper level low continues to advect moisture northward from the NW Caribbean Sea over Cuba...the Florida Straits...and Florida peninsula. Regardless of possible tropical cyclone development over this region...the upper level low and troughing will produce areas of heavy rainfall across the Florida peninsula and adjacent Gulf waters during the next few days. Elsewhere...across the SW Gulf waters...a surface trough is analyzed from 18N93W to 24N97W providing focus for scattered showers and tstms generally S of 25N W of 92W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Active convection will continue with the tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean as an upper level low noted on water vapor imagery over the Mona Passage and eastern Hispaniola moves W and generally in tandem with the wave during the next 24-36 hours. Much of the wave related moisture is expected to shift NW across the NE Caribbean and into the SW North Atlc by late Saturday into early Sunday. Elongated low pressure also extends across the Yucatan Channel region then southward across the Gulf of Honduras and portions of Central America. Dynamic lift associated with an upper level low centered near 19N85W and a divergent environment over Central America is forcing active convection across much of the NW Caribbean S of 22N W of 82W...and a large portion of Central America from Nicaragua W-NW to Guatemala and southern Mexico. Otherwise...moderate to fresh E-SE trades will persist through Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently the island falls under the influence of an upper level low centered near 19N69W. The upper level low will continue moving westward as a tropical wave...across the eastern Caribbean Sea at this time...will begin to increase cloudiness and the probability of precipitation through the overnight hours into Saturday. While deeper convection remains generally E of Puerto Rico at this time...the leading edge of isolated shower and tstm activity has reached the Mona Passage and southeastern adjacent coastal waters this evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad plume of moisture is being pulled northward across the waters N of the Bahamas by a middle to upper level low centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico. The upper level low and surface troughing extending from 28N75W to near Melbourne Florida supports scattered showers and isolated tstms generally N of 26N W of 73W. Elsewhere...surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc anchored by 1026 mb high centered near 33N31W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN