000 AXNT20 KNHC 291705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Maria centered near 37.5N 60.1W at 29/1500 UTC is accelerating east-northeast at 27 kt. Minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. See the latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Lee centered near 40.1N 49.5W at 29/1500 UTC is racing northeast at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. A broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing a large disorganized area of clouds and showers from the NW Caribbean across Cuba to southern Florida. A weak low is expected to form from this system near SW Florida this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of the low during the next 2-3 days. This system has a moderate chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the E Atlantic is along 32W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a moist environment, with a sharp 700 mb trough noted in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends over the E Caribbean from the Virgin Islands to Venezuela between 63W-65W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a very moist environment, and is evident in 700 mb wind fields. Diffluent flow aloft is enhancing deep convection east of the wave axis from 09N-20N between 59W-64W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 07N20W to 07N30W to 06N36W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to 08N50W to 12N65W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N-08N between 14W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to 28N94W near the Texas coast. The front is expected to dissipate during the next 24 hours. A stationary 1006 mb surface low is located over the Bay of Campeche near 20N94W with scattered moderate convection. An upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N86W with strong subsidence. Upper level diffluence SE of the center is enhancing convection over SE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave moving into the central Caribbean will enhance cloudiness and convection in the eastern half of the Caribbean during the next 24 hours. A large area of active convection is east of a trough axis that extends from the Gulf of Honduras to western Cuba. This trough and associated convection is expected to drift slowly north-northwestward through the weekend. The eastern extent of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends into the SW Caribbean with isolated moderate convection over Panama and northern Colombia. Little change is expected through Sat. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly fair weather over Hispaniola is expected to transition to afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms during the next 12 hours, then become mostly cloudy overnight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad plume of moisture being pulled northeast across the northern Bahamas and surrounding waters by an upper-level low in the E Gulf of Mexico supports widely scattered showers west of 74W. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the central and the eastern Atlantic, anchored by 1027 mb high pressure centered near 34N35W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell