000 AXNT20 KNHC 290514 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 114 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Maria is centered near 37.1N 65.5W at 29/0300 UTC or about 291 nm north of Bermuda, moving east at 15 kt. Minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Maria has tropical storm force winds extending up to 200 nm from the center. Convection associated with Maria is well north of the discussion area. It is expected to accelerate eastward and become extra tropical. See the latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Lee is centered near 36.3N 54.6W at 29/0300 UTC or about 560 nm east-northeast of Bermuda. Lee is moving northeast at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Lee is a small tropical cyclone with numerous moderate convection within 120 nm of the center. It is expected to accelerate northeastward and weaken. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across Cuba to the Florida Straits. This area is associated with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. A low pressure is likely to form from this weather system near the Straits of Florida on Friday, and it is forecast to move northward near the east coast of the Florida Peninsula through Saturday. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development during the next couple of days, before upper-level winds become less favorable on Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next several days. This system has a moderate chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 17N29W to 04N28W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a very moist environment, with a sharp 700 mb trough noted in model guidance. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave extends from 19N62W to 07N61W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a very moist environment, and is evident in 700 mb wind fields. A diffluent flow aloft related to an upper level low to the west of the wave is enhancing convection within the wave with scattered moderate convection from 12N-19N between 55W-61W. This activity is quickly approaching the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula extends from 17N91W to 09N91W. This wave is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the peninsula south of 20N between 88W- 94W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 07N20W to 06N35W. The ITCZ extends from 06N35W to 05N40W to 06N55W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 13W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a cold front extends from SE Louisiana to Houston Texas. The front is expected to stall and dissipate during the next 24 hours. High pressure will build behind the front through Friday. A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing convection. A stationary 1007 mb surface low is located over the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W with scattered moderate convection. An area of cloudiness and convection is developing over the western Caribbean and is expected to move northward affecting the southeast Gulf during the next 24-48 hours. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 27N86W with strong subsidence. Upper level diffluence SE of this center is enhancing the convection over the Bahamas and Cuba. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Refer to the section above for details. There is also an area of cloudiness and convection developing over the northwest Caribbean with a moderate chance for development during the next 48 hours. See the section above for further details. The eastern extent of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends into north Colombia with convection. Isolated moderate convection is over Panama, and northern Colombia. Expect over the next 24 hours for more showers and convection to advect over the east Caribbean while the northwest corner will continue with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves moving across the basin are discussed above. A plume of moisture being pulled northeast across the Bahamas and surrounding waters by an upper-level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico supports isolated showers west of 76W. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the central and the eastern Atlantic, anchored by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 32N38W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa