000 AXNT20 KNHC 241620 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Maria is centered near 28.7N 72.9W at 24/1500 UTC or about 260 nm ENE of Great Abaco Island and about 415 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within 135 nm of center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 25N-33N between 67W-77W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Lee is centered near 31.4N 49.9W at 24/1500 UTC or about 760 nm E of Bermuda and about 1195 nm WSW of the Azores moving SE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 30N-33N between 47W-52W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 08N30W to 21N26W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with amplified 700 mb troughing between 22W-34W and with global models indicating weak 850 mb vorticity N of 14N in the vicinity of the wave axis. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave axis at this time. Ongoing deep convection remains near the monsoon trough axis and will be mentioned below. Tropical wave extends from 07N60W to 18N58W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave remains on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb ridge anchored near 22N44W and lies on the western periphery of an upper level trough axis extending from 22N54W to a broad base deep in the tropics over Suriname near 04N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-12N between 53W-61W...and is more likely associated with the upper level troughing in place. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 07N35W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N35W to 06N43W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N-13N between 13W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered over southern Alabama and Mississippi near 31N88W with a trough axis extending southward over the central Gulf to a broad base over the northern Yucatan peninsula. An overall weak pressure pattern across the basin is resulting in gentle to moderate easterly winds with areas of scattered showers and tstms generally occurring from 26N-31N between 84W-89W under the influence of the middle to upper level lifting dynamics in place. W of 90W...dry and stable northerly flow aloft and generally gentle to moderate E-SE winds are providing for fair conditions and mostly clear skies this afternoon. Through the remainder of the weekend into the middle of next week...little change is expected in overall conditions. By Tuesday night into Wednesday...E-SE flow will increase slightly into moderate to occasional fresh breeze conditions as ridging noses in from the lower Mississippi River valley region into the eastern Gulf Wednesday into Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails W of 75W this afternoon as an overall weak pressure pattern remains in place across the central and western Caribbean. As a result of the weaker pressure pattern...winds remain generally light to gentle and variable at times. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 11N74W to 17N74W and continues providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms between 71W-76W. Farther west...skies remain mostly clear with fair conditions prevailing this afternoon...however a few isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 14N W of 76W as weaker lower pressure prevails across much of Central America. Finally...a tropical wave currently along 60W will continue approaching the Lesser Antilles through tonight into Monday morning and increase the probability of scattered showers and tstms for the Windward Islands and portions of eastern Venezuela. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh SE winds will prevail E of 72W. ...HISPANIOLA... A surface trough currently extends from the southwestern coast near 17N74W to 11N74W across the central Caribbean Sea and continues to provide focus for scattered showers and tstms across southern portions of the island and adjacent coastal waters this afternoon. The troughing will slide westward through tonight as weak ridging builds in from the central Atlc. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Outside the influence of Maria across the SW North Atlc waters... and Lee centered in the vicinity of 31N50W...surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc. A 1020 mb high is centered E-NE from Bermuda near 34N58W and a 1021 mb high is centered across the central Atlc near 28N39W. In addition...an upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery near 25N53W generating scattered showers and tstms from 23N-29N between 42W-49W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN