000 AXNT20 KNHC 221147 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 617 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Maria centered near 21.9N 70.9W at 22/1200 UTC, or about 26 nm NNE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 6 kt. Minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 300 nm of the center. Maria's eye will move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the complete details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose is centered near 39.7N 68.7W at 22/0900 UTC, or about 105 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts, moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and stable air prevails near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs, however some scattered moderate convection is within 135 nm E of Jose and 300 nm W of it. Jose is expected to meander well off the coast of New England for the next several days. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave came off the coast of Africa earlier this morning. Its axis extends from 15N17W to 04N17W. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however abundant Saharan dry air and dust are in the northern and central wave environment, thus supporting lack of convection at this time. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 20N42W to 06N44W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The tropical wave is located in a region of strong vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW show abundant dry air in its environment, which is supporting a lack of convection at this time. The exception is from 18N to 20N between 40W and 44W where numerous moderate and scattered tstms are being supported by shallow moisture and mid-level diffluence. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 10N15W to 08N23W to 06N33W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N33W to 08N39W, then resumes from 10N46W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 22W and 31W and from 07N to 11N between 46W and 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure along the E CONUS extends a ridge S across the northern Gulf waters and provides E light to gentle flow E of 90W and ESE light to moderate winds W of 90W. Dry air subsidence from aloft prevails across most of the basin, thus supporting fair weather. However, shallow moisture and diffluence aloft in the SW Gulf support scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of Campeche where a surface trough extends from 22N93W to inland S Mexico. No major changes expected during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The core of Hurricane Maria remains N of central Hispaniola, however the outer rainbands continue over Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic, supporting heavy rainfall resulting in continuous flash flooding in these Islands. This convection extends to 13N between 64W and 72W where winds have diminished mainly to moderate with seas to 7 ft. Isolated showers are in the SW basin S of 16N associated with the EPAC monsoon trough. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds prevail in the E Caribbean while light and variable flow is elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special features section for more information on Hurricane Maria. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from 31N78W to the straits of Florida near 24N80W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high pressure. Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are centered near 29N48W with elongated troughing extending N of the remnant low to 33N46W and S of the low to 23N50W. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are from 23N to 31N between 46W and 51W. No redevelopment of the remnants is anticipated during the next couple of days while the surface low gradually dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos