000 AXNT20 KNHC 220604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Maria centered near 21.0N 70.2W at 22/0300 UTC, or about 75 nm NNE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, or about 60 nm ESE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 7 kt. Minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center except. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of the center, except 300 nm SE quadrant. Maria's eye will gradually move away from the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and then move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Friday. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the complete details. Tropical Storm Jose centered near 39.5N 68.4W at 22/0300 UTC, or about 120 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts, moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and stable air prevails near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs, however some scattered moderate convection is within 135 nm E of Jose and 300 nm W of it. Jose is forecast to meander well offshore of the coast of southeastern New England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 18N40W to 03N41W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The tropical wave is located in a region of strong vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW show abundant dry air in its environment, which is supporting a lack of convection at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 07N22W to 06N30W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N30W to 08N38W, then resumes from 09N42W to 11N50W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 26W and 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure along the E CONUS extends a ridge S-SW across the Gulf waters and provides ENE light to moderate flow E of 90W and ESE winds of the same magnitude W of 90W. Dry air subsidence from aloft prevails across most of the basin, thus supporting fair weather. However, shallow moisture and diffluence aloft in the central Gulf support isolated showers also associated with the remnants of a surface trough. No major changes expected during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The core of Hurricane Maria remains N of central Hispaniola, however the outer rainbands continue over Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic, supporting heavy rainfall resulting in continuous flash flooding in these Islands. This convection extends to 15N between 64W and 72W where winds have diminished to fresh, however seas are up to 10 ft. Scattered to isolated showers are in the SW basin associated with the EPAC monsoon trough. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades prevail across the basin which will persist for the start of the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special features section for more information on Hurricane Maria. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from 29N75W to Andros Island in the Bahamas. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high pressure. Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are centered near 22N49W with elongated troughing extending N of the remnant low to 30N and S of the low to 16N52W. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are from 22N to 25N between 48W and 51W. No redevelopment of the remnants is anticipated during the next couple of days while the surface low gradually dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos