000 AXNT20 KNHC 220000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Maria centered near 20.9N 70.0W at 22/0000 UTC, or about 74 nm NNE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, or about 70 nm ESE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 8 kt. Minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center except within 120 nm in the S quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of the center except within 300 nm in the SE quadrant. The center of Maria will continue to remain offshore of the Dominican Republic tonight, moving near the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the complete details. Tropical Storm Jose centered near 39.6N 68.1W at 22/0000 UTC, or about 130 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts, moving W at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and stable air prevails near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs, however some scattered moderate convection is between 120 nm and 270 nm in the NW semicircle of Jose. Tropical storm force winds associated with Jose extend out far from the center, up to 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Jose is forecast to continue to lose tropical characteristics, likely becoming post-tropical by Fri afternoon. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending S of 18N along 41W moving W at around 10 kt. The tropical wave is located in a region of abundant moisture as depicted by SSMI TPW imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm E of the tropical wave axis and within 120 nm W of the tropical wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 06N24W to 06N31W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N31W to 09N39W, then resumes from 09N43W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 23W and 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure area is centered over the upper Mississippi Valley, extending a ridge S-SW to along coastal Texas. A weak surface trough was analyzed in the Gulf of Mexico from 28N85W to 24N89W. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring on the NW side of the trough. Aloft, a middle to upper level trough extends from S central Virginia to central Louisiana with isolated convection across the Florida Panhandle which should diminish with the arrival of sunset. Elsewhere aloft, W-NW flow prevails around an upper level anticyclone positioned over southern Mexico. Mainly gentle to moderate E to SE flow prevails across the basin, along with 2 to 4 ft seas W of 90W, and 2 ft or less E of 90W. The surface trough is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Maria remains N of the area N of Hispaniola with troughing reaching from southern Hispaniola to the S central Caribbean just N of the coast of Colombia. Very heavy rainfall resulting in continuous flash flooding remains over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Aloft, a middle to upper level trough extends into the area across central Cuba to eastern Honduras with dry and stable air over the NW Caribbean behind the trough. An upper level anticyclone is located near the NW coast of Colombia with anticyclonic flow found elsewhere across the basin. Mainly moderate trades prevail across the basin which will persist for the start of the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special features section for more information on Hurricane Maria. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from 31N73W to the gulf stream between the NW Bahamas and Florida near 26N80W. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring mainly NW of the trough axis. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high pressure area centered at the surface near 36N50W. Aloft, middle to upper level troughing is present NW of Maria, W of mainly 70W, while upper ridging extends from N to S to the E of Maria along 63W/64W. Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are centered near 21N49W with elongated troughing extending N of the remnant low to 30N. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted N of 21N to the E of the trough to 39W. No redevelopment of the remnants is anticipated during the next couple of days while the surface low gradually dissipates. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Lewitsky